This analysis is detailed in a report by the Lebanese newspaper L'Orient-Le Jour. The newspaper notes that Syria has remained silent on Israeli strikes against Iran, in contrast to condemnations from other regional capitals. Furthermore, Israeli aircraft conducting these strikes have reportedly favored using Syrian airspace. While Syria's air defense capabilities are limited, the report suggests the new Syrian leadership, which overthrew the Iran-backed Assad regime, does not object to these overflights and views the potential weakening of the Iranian government favorably.
The Al-Sharaa government has reportedly demonstrated a clear policy shift away from Iran since taking power. This includes arresting individuals linked to pro-Iranian militias and increasing control over the Syrian-Lebanese border to prevent arms transfers, particularly to Hezbollah. While open to engagement with Russia, another former ally of the Assad regime, Damascus has adopted a more confrontational approach towards Iran and its regional network.
This repositioning has reportedly led to improved relations with the United States and even a degree of openness towards Israel. The U.S. has responded by lifting sanctions, and a meeting between President Al-Sharaa and U.S. President Donald Trump took place. Syria is also reportedly considering a normalization agreement with Israel, in coordination with Saudi Arabia, despite the unresolved issue of the Golan Heights.
In the context of the Israel-Iran conflict, Syria is said to be taking steps to support efforts to weaken the pro-Iranian axis. This includes military reinforcements along its borders with Iraq and Lebanon, aimed at preventing incursions and keeping Hezbollah and its Iraqi allies on the defensive. The report also mentions that Turkish President Erdogan contacted President Trump to express concerns about potential spillover from the conflict into Syria.
L'Orient-Le Jour suggests that Syria, under Al-Sharaa, is not merely seeking to avoid entanglement but is attempting to act as a discreet participant by leveraging its strategic position and international support to counter Iranian interests. This aligns with Al-Sharaa's stated ambition to re-establish Syria as an independent regional actor.
The article concludes by noting that Tom Barrack, the U.S. envoy for Syria, has reportedly been given an additional role concerning Lebanon. He is expected to visit Beirut to encourage Lebanese officials to follow Syria's example by taking steps to neutralize pro-Iranian influence, disarm Hezbollah, and resolve border disputes with Israel.
Map: Source