Tensions in the Middle East have reached a critical juncture as Israel’s military campaign against Iran continues, with Israeli forces claiming "full air supremacy over Tehran" on June 16th. Reports indicate a significant exodus of civilians from the Iranian capital, with shuttered shops and widespread anxiety gripping the populace. The ongoing conflict has exposed vulnerabilities within the Iranian regime, fueling speculation about its stability amidst internal dissent and external military pressure.
According to the Economist in an article titled "Will Iran’s hated regime implode?", the Iranian regime, often described as decaying and despised, faces questions about its potential collapse. While some hope the current crisis could trigger an uprising or coup, the publication notes, "Its default is to defy aggressors, not to capitulate." The piece suggests an extended war with civilian casualties could paradoxically rally public opinion in the nationalistic country, potentially allowing the regime to survive and even accelerate its nuclear ambitions.
The current situation has drawn comparisons to past crises. The Iran-Iraq war, which began amid post-revolutionary disarray, ultimately strengthened the Iranian leadership. Now, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is openly calling for Iranians to rise up. However, despite signs of dissent, including online celebrations of assassinated generals and criticism of the regime's past actions, the Iranian authorities are attempting to project normalcy.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has recently sought to consolidate power, even orchestrating the election of a reformist president to bring differing factions on board. While mockery of the regime initially followed Israel's strikes, this is reportedly shifting to fear for the country's future, with citizens sharing evacuation maps and facing petrol rationing. The lack of a clear alternative leadership leaves many Iranians wondering if they are better off with the current regime, even as an entrenched leadership with nothing to lose could pose an even greater regional threat.
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