By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias
The war between Iran and Israel is threatening to erupt into a full-blown regional conflagration. As international actors tentatively explore pathways to de-escalation, a grim reality emerges: the two most plausible scenarios for ending the current hostilities both portend significant, albeit different, forms of instability for the Middle East. There appears to be no comfortable off-ramp, only a choice between a bitter pill and a plunge into the abyss.
Consider the first scenario: a brokered agreement to freeze the conflict. Under the auspices of the USA or another significant power, Iran might concede to halting its uranium enrichment and formally commit its nuclear ambitions solely to peaceful energy production. While seemingly a diplomatic victory, such an outcome would likely satisfy no one. For Israel, the "Iranian business" would remain unfinished. The existential threat posed by a regime dedicated to its destruction would merely be postponed, not eliminated. The knowledge and capacity Iran has already acquired mean it could, at a future juncture, still, race towards a weapon, leaving Israeli national security perpetually on edge. A regime change, from Israel's perspective, would be indefinitely deferred.
For Iran, too, this scenario is fraught. After what many Iranians would perceive as a "bloodbath" in the recent exchanges, an agreement that halts hostilities without achieving decisive objectives would leave a residue of bitterness and a thirst for revenge. With the current regime likely clinging to power, its foundational anti-Western and anti-Israeli rhetoric would undoubtedly persist, fueling future tensions and ensuring Iran remains a revisionist rival to the Jewish state. This "freeze" would be less a resolution and more a dangerous deferral, a ticking clock reset rather than disarmed.
The alternative scenario – the collapse of the Iranian regime – presents an even more terrifying vista. Should the hostilities lead to the implosion of the ruling clerical establishment, a vast power vacuum would instantly emerge in Tehran. The country could remain effectively headless for a prolonged period, creating fertile ground for chaos. A chilling sub-scenario involves the fragmentation of Iran, mirroring Iraq's post-2003 disintegration. Ethnic minorities – Arabs, Baluchis, Kurds, and Azeris – might intensify struggles for autonomy or outright independence.
The humanitarian and security fallout would be immense. Waves of Iranian refugees could seek sanctuary in neighboring countries en route to the West, creating enormous strain. The security of Iran's considerable strategic military arsenal, including ballistic missiles and advanced drone technology, would be thrown into grave doubt. Military and political collapse would inevitably trigger profound socioeconomic turmoil. A fragmented and likely fractious Iranian opposition would struggle, perhaps vainly, to present a viable alternative government capable of unifying the diverse and sprawling nation.
The trouble is that both these futures are laden with unacceptable risks for the entire region. The "freezing" scenario offers a fragile reprieve at best, guaranteeing continued underlying tension and the high probability of future conflict. It fails to satisfy the core grievances or security concerns of either primary party. Conversely, the "collapse" scenario evokes the nightmare of Iraq in 2003, but on a far larger, more complex scale. Given that the Middle East still grapples with the aftershocks of the Iraqi experience, and Iran is a nation of far greater size and geopolitical weight, no government in the broader region is remotely prepared or willing to confront such a catastrophic implosion.
Ultimately, the path away from direct Iran-Israel conflict seems to lead not to calm waters but to different kinds of treacherous seas. The region faces a grim choice, where even the "lesser evil" promises continued instability and profound challenges for years to come.
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