By Dr. Nikolaos Stelgias
It isn’t hard to recall the “new spring” that blossomed between Ankara and Tel Aviv in recent years. Diplomatic sources reported that, in the last quarter of 2023, senior Turkish delegations were preparing to visit Israel, and a broad agenda—ranging from energy cooperation to tourism—was already on the table. Everything changed, however, with the bloody 7 October 2023 attack carried out by Hamas and Islamic Jihad—an operation the Palestinian groups dubbed “Al-Aqsa Flood.” The assault rocked regional balances, and Ankara’s harsh rhetoric against Israel’s heavy bombardment of Gaza once again brought the two countries to the brink.
From Spring Breeze to Black Storm
At first glance, the tension appears to be a reaction driven solely by Gaza, yet Israel’s security circles are focused on more than Hamas. Leaks indicate that back-to-back secret meetings in Jerusalem, chaired by Prime Minister Netanyahu, have been “Turkey-centric.” As one Israeli analyst told The Levant Files, “After weakening Iran, the focus is shifting to the Turkish threat.” The word “threat,” of course, lives in the gray zone between concrete risk and perception; Israel’s data remain classified, and public knowledge is limited to backstage whispers.
Why Is Northern Cyprus on the Agenda?
Recent commentary in Israeli media and diplomatic corridors—often headlined “The Northern Cyprus Danger”—has added a new, critical move to the Eastern Mediterranean chessboard. The claim is that Ankara is deploying high-tech air-defense systems, UCAVs (uncrewed combat aerial vehicles), and radar networks in the island’s north. Israeli strategists interpret the buildup as a move that could jeopardize both Levantine air corridors and energy projects along the Egypt–Greece axis.
Moreover, specific religious orders active in Northern Cyprus, Caucasus-origin groups, and Iranian students living there all appear in Tel Aviv’s security reports as “national threats.” Some sources allege that Iranian intelligence has infiltrated strategic points in northern Nicosia, though these claims remain unverified internationally—and in Ankara. Another source of irritation for Israel is the covert route created by the drugs–money-laundering–prostitution triangle: a pipeline that begins in Afghanistan, passes through Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Cyprus, and stretches as far as Latin America. Tel Aviv argues that “the unrecognized status of Northern Cyprus” allows criminal networks to operate with relative impunity.
Colliding Energy Routes
The Eastern Mediterranean gas equation contains, simultaneously, the prospect of a Turkey–Israel partnership and a rivalry among Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. The Gaza war has further unsettled this fragile diplomatic ground; energy companies have slammed the brakes on new pipeline projects. Turkey’s effort to bolster its “Blue Homeland” doctrine via Northern Cyprus signals to Tel Aviv a possible strategic realignment. Whether that signal reflects exaggeration or hard military fact remains unclear; yet, perception alone is enough to trigger countermeasures.
Risks, Misconceptions, and Opportunities
Regional actors’ fears appear to feed on themselves. As Iran’s shadow recedes, Israel turns its gaze toward Turkey; Ankara, meanwhile, seeks both a political-moral stance on Gaza and a broader geopolitical footprint in the Eastern Mediterranean. In this climate, Northern Cyprus—thanks to the legal vacuum created by its lack of recognition—becomes an easy target, serving both genuine security concerns and the search for a “perfect external enemy.”
Lasting stability in the Eastern Mediterranean depends on transparent mechanisms that can break this spiral of distrust. The nature and number of military assets could be opened to independent inspection, and multi-stakeholder consortia in energy projects could soften the zero-sum logic. The region’s peoples—mainly Turkish and Israeli publics—must press decision-makers for transparency rather than applaud nationalist bravado.
Today, the Eastern Mediterranean is a rare basin rich in resources yet fraught with geopolitical fragility. Turkey–Israel relations once served as its barometer; now that barometer is broken, and the readings are unreliable. Adding the Cyprus dossier to Ankara–Tel Aviv tensions could lock the equation into a stalemate. The way out lies in shedding dogmatic rhetoric and, with cool heads, rediscovering not a common enemy but common interests. A future built on the will of the region’s peoples—rather than in the shadow of imperial designs—remains possible, provided we refuse to surrender to our fears like a modern Tower of Babel.
Photo: Generate with the help of Gemini AI technology