According to political analyst Yara Hawari, the appointment resembles “a Game of Thrones scripted in Tel Aviv,” cementing an heir that Israel wants—and Palestinians don’t.” She notes that the two offices never existed before and carry no constitutional mandate, yet they may soon decide the leadership of a fragmented, war-weary nation.
Why al-Sheikh? Follow the Security Files
Al-Sheikh has spent two decades cultivating Israel’s defense establishment. As civil-affairs minister, he controls every permit that lets West Bank Palestinians work, travel, or seek medical care across checkpoints—“a corruption currency,” Hawari writes. In 2007, he assumed the hot-button job of security liaison under the Oslo framework, a program critics say was designed to stifle resistance to both Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA). Israeli officials have discreetly shielded him; in 2012, security chiefs even pressured a journalist to bury a sexual-harassment exposé. The Times of Israel later reported that the PA, under pressure from donors to “reform” before any future role in Gaza, has received support from outside actors for the reshuffle. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman privately urged Abbas to invent a deputy’s chair last summer, diplomats say. At the same time, the EU representative office hailed the May decree as “an important step” toward governance overhaul. But many Palestinians see foreign applause for a hand-picked successor—Abbas is 16 years past his elected term—as proof that Western democracy talk is hollow.
An Heir Unloved at Home
Polls underscore the disconnect. In a December 2023 survey by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, 60 percent favored dissolving the PA altogether; just one percent chose al-Sheikh to replace Abbas. Guardian columnist Dana El Kurd calls the succession plan “another undemocratic stitch-up” that denies Palestinians political agency. Street anger has only deepened during Israel’s 18-month war on Gaza, in which PA security forces killed three protesters—including a 12-year-old girl—while dispersing rallies for the besieged enclave.
Israel’s Preferred Partner
Israeli defense officials rarely comment publicly on PA succession, yet many analysts believe Jerusalem pushed hard for al-Sheikh. “If you heard him talking in a closed room, you’d think he was an Israeli soldier,” Hamas spokesman Osama Hamdan told journalist Jeremy Scahill this month. The calculus is straightforward: an heir invested in existing security channels is less likely to rip them up if violence in the West Bank escalates.
Crackdown as Résumé
Al-Sheikh’s bid has been buttressed by a year-long PA security sweep against militants in Jenin and Nablus. Before Israel’s January “Operation Iron Wall,” PA forces entered the Jenin camp to seize weapons, actions residents likened to an advance guard for the Israeli army. The clampdown demonstrated to donors that Ramallah could still police the territory—yet it reinforced the public perception of the PA as a subcontractor to the occupation.
What Comes Next?
Under the PA Basic Law, a vacant presidency should trigger elections within 60 days, with the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council serving as interim leader. But the PLC has been defunct since 2007; by inventing vice-presidential posts inside the PLO and the “State of Palestine,” Abbas may bypass statutory checks entirely. Rival Fatah figures—Marwan Barghouti (jailed), Jibril Rajoub, and Majed Faraj—are unlikely to stand idle. Analysts warn that a contested handover could splinter Fatah’s security apparatus, leaving the West Bank vulnerable to further Israeli incursions or intra-Palestinian violence. A Leadership Choice or a Last Gasp?
For now, Hussein al-Sheikh sits in an office built for him alone, his legitimacy resting on presidential pen strokes, foreign endorsements, and the Israeli coordination rooms he knows so well. Whether that is enough when Mahmoud Abbas finally exits the scene may determine if the Palestinian national movement sees an orderly transition, or yet another crisis atop the ruins of Gaza and the simmering streets of Ramallah.
Photo: The Source, New Arab