Northern Cyprus—long treated in Jerusalem as a distant Greek-Turkish dispute—has rapidly morphed into what security specialists call "the Mediterranean's Wild West," a zone where Turkish armed drones, ballistic missiles, and terrorist financiers can operate with near-total impunity. Israeli analyst Shay Gal contends that if left unchecked, the enclave could soon imperil Israel's offshore gas fields, commercial sea-lanes, and even its major cities.
In a detailed essay published 29 July in the Israeli Hayom "Northern Cyprus Is Also an Israeli Problem," Shay Gal—an expert in international politics, crisis management and strategic communication—argues that Jerusalem must coordinate with Athens and Nicosia on a contingency plan to "liberate the island's north" should threats emanating from the Turkish-occupied sector reach a critical threshold.
A Forward Turkish Base on EU Soil
Turkey's 1974 invasion carved Cyprus in two, but its military footprint has since expanded far beyond peacekeeping. According to leaked intelligence cited by Gal, Ankara has installed SIGINT stations, cyber-surveillance suites, and covert terror facilities in the north, calling it "an ideal location where anything can be done without interference by police or judicial oversight." The presence gives Turkey—and by extension groups such as Hamas and Iran's Quds Force—an operational haven on territory internationally recognized as part of an EU member state.
The transformation is most visible at Lefkoniko Airfield, which has been rebuilt into a drone hub. Armed Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci UAVs stationed there can reach Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas rigs faster than aircraft launched from mainland Turkey. Even more alarming, Gal notes, are ATMACA anti-ship cruise missiles and the new Typhoon ballistic missile reportedly pre-positioned near Kyrenia and Famagusta. With ranges exceeding 200 km and 560 km respectively, these weapons could hit Israeli naval vessels or strike Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa Bay without warning.
"Financial Hub for Extremism"
Military hardware is only part of the equation. The north's lax regulatory environment has turned it into "a global laundromat," Gal asserts, funneling Iranian and Turkish funds through casinos, universities, and shell companies. Documents seized during Israel's 2021 "Guardian of the Walls" and 2023 "Iron Swords" operations revealed Hamas schemes to base operatives in Northern Cyprus to stage attacks against Israeli and European targets. A Quds Force cell broken up in 2023 corroborated those plans.
Operation "Poseidon's Wrath"?
Gal therefore recommends that Israel, Greece, and the Republic of Cyprus discreetly craft a joint playbook—codenamed "Poseidon's Wrath"—to turn off Northern Cyprus's air defenses, sever Turkish reinforcement routes, and restore Cypriot sovereignty if escalation becomes unavoidable. He stresses that Jerusalem "does not seek confrontation," but recalls that a once-theoretical strike on Iran's nuclear facilities ultimately materialised; Turkey's leadership, currently pressing ahead with the contentious Akkuyu nuclear plant, "should internalize that lesson."
Regional Stakes
Allowing an unrecognized statelet to host precision missiles, attack drones, and terror financiers threatens far more than Cypriot reunification talks. It could undermine NATO cohesion, erode EU credibility, and jeopardize the East Med energy corridor on which Europe is increasingly reliant. Whether "Poseidon's Wrath" remains a contingency or turns into reality, Gal concludes, will depend on Ankara's next moves—and on how quickly Israel and its Hellenic partners prepare for the worst.