A storm of frustration is brewing in Baku as Azerbaijani media launches a blistering critique of Moscow, accusing Russia of engaging in a "panic attack" against its southern neighbor and perpetuating a historical pattern of unreliability. Amidst escalating tensions and a war of words, all eyes are turning to Ankara, with a growing hope that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan can step in to mediate and salvage the deteriorating relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia during his upcoming visit to Moscow.
Prominent Azerbaijani news outlet Müsavat has published a series of articles that portray a relationship at a breaking point, fueled by Russian media campaigns, political pressure, and a deep-seated historical mistrust that Baku believes has once again been justified.
A Russian "Panic Attack" and a Legacy of Mistrust
According to analysts on Müsavat, Moscow is currently in the throes of a "panic attack" regarding Azerbaijan. This anxiety is reportedly rooted in Russia's diminishing influence in the South Caucasus following Azerbaijan's decisive victory in the Second Karabakh War. Baku's confident assertion of its sovereignty, its strengthening alliance with Turkey, and its independent foreign policy have seemingly unnerved the Kremlin, which is accustomed to being the primary power broker in the region.
This Russian reaction is not just seen as a contemporary geopolitical squabble but as the latest chapter in a long and painful history. One Müsavat article draws a direct, damning parallel between the current situation and Russia's historical dealings with the Karabakh Khanate in the 19th century. The piece, titled "On the example of the Karabakh Khanate: Trusting Russia leads to disaster," argues that Russia has a track record of violating agreements and betraying the trust of its Azerbaijani partners. It recalls the 1805 Treaty of Kurekchay, which promised the Khanate protection under Russian suzerainty, only for the Russian Empire to abolish the khanate outright a few years later. For many in Azerbaijan, this historical betrayal serves as a stark warning: Russia's promises are fleeting, and relying on them is a path to ruin. The current pressure from Moscow is viewed through this lens of historical grievance, reinforcing the belief that Russia cannot be a dependable long-term ally.
The "British Finger": External Forces at Play?
Adding another layer of complexity to the deteriorating relations, some commentators are floating more sensational theories. One article provocatively asks, "A 'British finger' in the dispute with Moscow?" This perspective suggests that the current friction is not entirely organic but is being actively fueled by external powers, specifically the United Kingdom.
According to this claim, the West, and London in particular, benefits from driving a wedge between Baku and Moscow. The alleged goal is to weaken Russia's strategic position in the South Caucasus, disrupt its energy and transport projects, and pull Azerbaijan more firmly into a pro-Western orbit. By fanning the flames of discord, these external actors hope to create an irreparable rift that serves their geopolitical interests. While presented as a "sensational claim," the discussion highlights the belief that the South Caucasus remains a chessboard for global powers, with Azerbaijan and its relationship with Russia as key pieces in the game.
All Eyes on Erdoğan: Can Turkey Mend the Rift?
Amid the accusations and conspiracy theories, a pragmatic hope has emerged, centered on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. An article titled "Will Erdoğan reconcile Baku and Moscow?" captures the prevailing sentiment that Turkey's leader is uniquely positioned to act as a mediator.
Erdoğan's strength lies in his dual role as both leader and president. He is Azerbaijan's staunchest ally, bound by the "one nation, two states" principle, giving him Baku's complete trust. Simultaneously, he has cultivated a complex yet functional working relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, enabling direct and frank dialogue. His upcoming visit to Russia is therefore being watched with immense anticipation in Baku. It is seen as a critical opportunity to de-escalate the situation.
The expectation is that Erdoğan will convey Azerbaijan's frustrations directly to Putin, urging an end to the hostile media campaigns and political pressure. The hope is that he can secure assurances from Moscow to respect Azerbaijan's sovereignty and strategic interests, particularly concerning the full implementation of the 2020 trilateral agreement. For Azerbaijan, a successful mediation would mean Russia ceasing its perceived attempts to undermine Baku's post-war gains and instead acting as a constructive, neutral party as initially envisioned.
Photo: Müsavat