Relations between Azerbaijan and Russia have plunged into a severe crisis following the release of purported audio recordings allegedly implicating the Russian military in the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet. The incident, which killed 38 people, has resurfaced amidst a backdrop of rapidly deteriorating bilateral ties, marked by arrests, diplomatic protests, and inflammatory rhetoric from both sides.
According to reports from Azeri media, the pro-government media outlet Minval published alleged recordings on Tuesday featuring a Russian officer, Dmitry Paliduchuk, receiving direct orders to open fire on flight J2-8243. The flight was en route from Baku to Grozny before it crashed in Kazakhstan. While Minval stated it could not independently corroborate the material, the Russian independent outlet The Insider reported that the recordings appeared authentic. The release of the "evidence" follows months of frustration in Baku over Moscow's delays and lack of transparency in the official crash investigation.
The explosive accusation is the latest development in a deepening conflict that ignited following a police raid in Yekaterinburg, Russia. During the raid, two ethnic Azerbaijanis, brothers Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, died in custody. Baku alleges the men were beaten to death with "extreme cruelty," citing medical reports, while Moscow maintains they died of natural causes. The incident triggered a swift and forceful response from Azerbaijan, which issued a formal complaint, cancelled all Russian cultural events, and arrested several Russian journalists on suspicion of espionage.
The diplomatic tit-for-tat has since intensified. This week, Azerbaijani authorities arrested a group of Russian nationals for alleged drug trafficking and cybercrimes, releasing photos of the detainees with visible injuries—an act Russian commentators decried as a "dehumanising shitshow." In an apparent retaliation, Russian authorities have reportedly conducted a new wave of arrests targeting high-profile members of the Azerbaijani diaspora. Further escalating tensions, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev held a pointed phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry summoned Russian Ambassador Mikhail Yevdokimov.
While officials have employed cautious diplomatic language, prominent Russian state media figures have been less restrained in their rhetoric. Television host Sergei Mardan declared on Telegram that "Baku has always been a Russian city" and threatened the "safety of navigation and oil extraction in the Caspian Sea." Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, however, blamed external forces for the escalation, claiming that "Ukraine will do everything possible to add fuel to the fire." He insisted that Russia does not threaten Azerbaijan and will protect its citizens through diplomacy. With nationalist rhetoric surging and trust collapsing, the once-stable relationship appears to be on the brink of collapse, with the tragic crash of flight J2-8243 now at the center of a geopolitical firestorm.
Photo: Azeri media