The Balkan Peninsula is rapidly transforming into a new crucible of geopolitical competition, with the era of unchallenged Western dominance fading and creating a vacuum for powers like China, Turkey, and a repositioned Russia, according to a new report from a leading Russian foreign policy think tank. The analysis suggests the region is entering a more volatile and complex multipolar era, mirroring broader global shifts.
The assessment comes from a study by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), a prominent think tank with close ties to the Foreign Ministry. As first reported by the Kommersant newspaper, the Совет по международным делам выпустил доклад «Внерегиональные акторы на Балканах» (The Russian International Affairs Council has released the report 'Non-regional actors in the Balkans'). The document portrays the region as a "zone of colliding interests," where the unipolar moment led by the United States and the European Union is coming to a decisive end. It argues that this shift away from Western hegemony is creating new opportunities and risks for all involved.
According to the report's findings, the European Union remains the most desired partner for most Balkan nations; however, its influence is hindered by a stalled and bureaucratic accession process. This "enlargement fatigue," felt in both Brussels and candidate countries, has created frustration and opened the door for other actors. Simultaneously, the report notes the waning, though still significant, influence of the United States, whose strategic priorities have increasingly shifted towards the Indo-Pacific and the conflict in Ukraine, leaving less bandwidth for Balkan affairs.
Filling this void, the report highlights, is primarily China. Beijing has successfully projected its power through economic means, including its Belt and Road Initiative, significant infrastructure investments, and loans. Unlike the West, China is perceived as a reliable financial partner that refrains from interfering in domestic politics —a stance that has found favor with some regional leaders. The report also acknowledges the growing influence of Turkey, which leverages its historical, cultural, and religious ties to position itself as an alternative power center, alongside financial investments from Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
Perhaps most notably, the Russian analysis offers a candid self-assessment of Moscow's position. It concedes that Russia's influence in the region has "significantly decreased" since 2022. Its traditional tools of soft power have been eroded, and it is increasingly viewed as a "spoiler" aiming to disrupt Western integration rather than a constructive partner. The report identifies Serbia and the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina as its remaining key partners. In this new, crowded geopolitical arena, the RIAC report concludes that the Balkans are no longer a Western-dominated periphery but a central stage for a new era of great power competition.
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