The tipping point occurred during a police operation in Yekaterinburg, Russia, where over 50 Azerbaijani nationals were detained in a decades-old murder investigation. During the operation, two brothers, Ziyaddin and Huseyn Safarov, died in custody. Azerbaijani officials have furiously condemned the deaths as "ethnically motivated," alleging the men were subjected to violence and torture. According to medical examiners from Azerbaijan, one brother’s death was a direct result of injuries sustained in custody, while the other died from a heart attack induced by post-traumatic shock.
Baku's response was swift and uncompromising. The Azerbaijani government immediately canceled all Russian-organized cultural events and suspended a planned parliamentary delegation to Moscow. In a more dramatic move, Azerbaijani police raided the Baku offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, a Kremlin-funded media outlet. Several employees were detained, with two later accused of being operatives for Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB). Simultaneously, authorities began arresting multiple Russian nationals on charges ranging from drug trafficking to cybercrime, with circulating images reportedly showing detainees who had been beaten and humiliated.
The retaliation has been mutual. In Azerbaijan, Russian citizens have reported terrifying nighttime police raids, with families being targeted for document checks and alleged visa violations. The Russian Embassy in Baku confirmed it has received numerous complaints from its citizens alleging violence and intimidation. Meanwhile, back in Russia, authorities briefly detained the leader of the Azerbaijani community in Yekaterinburg and arrested other members of the Azerbaijani diaspora, adding more fuel to the fire.
This explosive 48-hour period is the culmination of a relationship that has been deteriorating since late 2024. Tensions first spiked in December 2024, after an Azerbaijani civilian airplane was shot down by a Russian missile near Grozny. Since then, Azerbaijan has been actively working to dismantle Russian influence, closing down Russian cultural centers and cracking down on Kremlin-backed media. Moscow has reportedly answered with cyberattacks and increased pressure on the large Azerbaijani migrant and professional community in Russia.
Signaling a deep and perhaps permanent rift, there has been a deafening silence at the highest levels of government. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ilham Aliyev have had no public contact since the December plane crash. Analysts see Azerbaijan's decisive actions as a clear signal of a long-term strategic pivot away from Moscow's orbit.
In a stunning geopolitical twist, the crisis has forged an unlikely alignment between Azerbaijan and its long-time rival, Armenia, who now share a common hostility toward Moscow. Both nations have accused Russia of aggressive and violent actions against their citizens, creating a rare moment of unity in a historically volatile region.
As the dust settles on a tumultuous 48 hours, Russia and Azerbaijan are locked in a downward spiral of mutual accusations and retaliatory measures. With diplomatic channels frozen and tensions at a boiling point, the crisis not only threatens bilateral relations but also challenges Russia’s traditional dominance in the South Caucasus, with no immediate resolution in sight.
Photo: Created with the help of Gemini AI