As Cyprus looks towards the parliamentary elections in May 2026, recent surveys and analyses reveal an unprecedented level of political fluidity. This potential seismic shift in the country's party landscape is of significant importance, with traditional major parties facing a 'catastrophe' of seat losses, while new and emerging forces appear poised to reshape the Cypriot political map entirely.
According to an online survey conducted for Vouli TV between June 13 and 24, 2025, with a sample of 2,460 individuals, the political arena is in a state of constant flux. Other Cypriot media outlets, such as Politis and Offsite, agree that the trends observed, particularly the rise of the "Alma" movement, are unlikely to recede.
The Ascendance of New Political Forces
The most striking finding from a new poll suggests that the movement Alma, led by former Auditor General Odysseas Michaelides, could emerge as a leading force, polling at 20%. This is considered an 'unprecedented' development, with Alma capitalising on a significant portion of voters who previously supported 'other' parties or were dissatisfied with the status quo. Alma's support is essentially a reflection of a public desire for 'clean' solutions and an 'anti-establishment policy,' with Michaelides himself seen as a 'champion' against corruption.
Source: Offsite
Another new entrant, Volt, appears set to secure a place in parliament, with projections placing its support around 5% in the Vouli TV poll, potentially securing three seats. However, another source citing the same Unitrustmedia survey indicates Volt at 7%, highlighting the fluidity and varying interpretations of polling data.
The far-right ELAM is also showing significant strength, registering 17% in the Unitrustmedia survey. This figure, however, might be inflated due to overrepresentation in the sample, with a political analyst suggesting its actual support is likely closer to 10-12%. Historically, ELAM has benefited from a "hidden vote," and its rise has been linked to public concerns over migration. However, some analysts believe its influence might wane as migration issues become less prominent, though others assert it will remain a significant force above 12%.
Other new or smaller parties, such as Sikou Pano, are also noted as potential disruptors.
Catastrophic Losses for Traditional Parties
The forthcoming elections are expected to be particularly challenging for Cyprus's long-standing political parties. The four traditional parties – DISY, AKEL, DIKO, and EDEK – are facing "difficult times". Even if they manage to maintain their 2021 vote percentages, a loss of parliamentary seats is considered "guaranteed.
Currently, DISY holds 17 seats (down from 27.77% in 2021), AKEL holds 15 seats (down from 22.34%), and DIKO holds nine seats (down from 11.29%). The primary reason for the anticipated decline is the projected entry of additional parties, such as ELAM, Alma, and potentially Sikou Pano, above the crucial 7.2% threshold required for participation in the third seat distribution.
A hypothetical scenario based on current trends, assuming EDEK, DIPA, and the Ecologists also enter parliament (each with around 4% of the vote, securing two seats), presents a stark outlook:
DISY, even at 25%, could lose 3-4 seats, and if its support drops to around 22%, it could lose 5-6 seats, ending up with only 11.
AKEL, if it receives approximately 20%, could see its representation drop from 15 to 10 seats.
DIKO, even at 10% of the vote, is predicted to secure no more than seven seats, or potentially as few as 5-6. The Vouli TV poll specifically shows DIKO at 3%, which would lead to an even more significant reduction than the 5% suggested by another source.
Smaller traditional parties, such as EDEK, which is "on the brink" according to the measurements, and DIPA, along with the Ecologists, are expected to barely make it into parliament, each securing around two seats. Center parties, in particular, face "existential risks".
Key Voter Concerns and Shifting Sentiments
The electorate is characterized by significant fluidity, with public opinion solidifying around the need for "anti-systemic politics." A substantial 38% of voters declared they would not vote for the same party they did in 2021, while only 50% would. This indicates a significant shift away from traditional loyalties. Moreover, a high degree of certainty is observed among voters, with 78% being "sure" of their choice, which poses a significant challenge for established parties hoping to sway undecided voters closer to the election.
The most critical issue influencing voters' decisions is corruption and institutions (33%), followed by the Cypriot issue (25%) and the cost of living/economy (23%). The emphasis on corruption is partly attributed to recent institutional conflicts. The enduring prominence of the Cypriot issue is seen as a reflection of geopolitical concerns and its profound significance to the Cypriots.
President's Approval and Future Implications
The incumbent President, Nikos Christodoulides, faces significant public dissatisfaction. According to the Unitrustmedia survey, his performance is viewed as "very bad" by 31% and "bad" by 17%, totaling 48% of negative assessments. Only 23% rate his performance as "good" or "very good". A notable shift towards "mediocre" (29%) indicates a "wait and see" approach from the public, with many anticipating the completion of his announced projects in 2026 to assess his work. Analysts highlight his administration's struggle with communication and effectively conveying its achievements to the public.
Looking ahead to the 2028 presidential elections, the 2026 parliamentary results are expected to define the political landscape significantly. Early indications from the polls place Odysseas Michaelides at the forefront of presidential preferences (21%), followed by Averof Neophytou (15%) and Christodoulides himself (12%). This suggests that the impact of the parliamentary elections will be crucial in shaping the prospects for presidential candidates and party alliances, promising a truly transformative period for Cypriot politics.
Photo: Created with the help of the Gemini AI