For nearly two weeks in June, Israel conducted one of the most ambitious air campaigns in modern military history, pounding dozens of Iranian nuclear and missile sites in what it called Operation Rising Lion. The strikes, coordinated with the United States, destroyed or damaged key facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Arak and eliminated roughly 80 percent of Iran's air-defense batteries, Israeli officials say. The operation also decapitated much of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' senior leadership. It wiped out close to 1,000 ballistic missiles, dramatically reducing the volume of fire Iran could direct at Israeli cities.
According to "The Post-Iranian Middle East: America and Israel Can Build a New Regional Order," a Foreign Affairs essay by retired Israeli intelligence chief Amos Yadlin, Operation Rising Lion has driven Tehran "onto the back foot" and opened an unprecedented diplomatic window. Yadlin contends that Washington and Jerusalem now have "a rare opportunity to secure a robust nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic—and perhaps a broader political settlement that could redraw the region's security architecture."
A first-ever blow to a fortified program
Israel has previously taken pre-emptive action against Iraq's Osirak reactor in 1981 and Syria's al-Kibar facility in 2007, but Iran's program was far more dispersed and deeply buried. Israeli pilots flew more than 1,200 sorties, dropping over 4,000 precision-guided munitions as far as 1,400 miles from home bases. U.S. Aegis and THAAD batteries, paired with Israel's Arrow, David's Sling, and Iron Dome systems, intercepted 86 percent of the roughly 600 Iranian missiles fired in retaliation and 99.5 percent of the 1,000 drones launched, military sources report.
Although 29 Israelis were killed and more than 3,000 injured, defense planners had braced for much worse. "We expected triple the casualties," an Israeli Home Front Command spokesman told reporters. "The multilayered defense held."
Tehran's constrained choices
Iran now faces a painful triage: rebuild its nuclear centrifuge network, restore degraded missile forces, or resupply proxies from Gaza to Lebanon—all while grappling with sanctions that could be "snapped back" by European signatories of the 2015 JCPOA. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei must also decide whether to resume enrichment openly, withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, or return to negotiations under U.S. pressure for intrusive inspections and a permanent end to domestic enrichment.
A chance for a grand bargain
With Hezbollah and Hamas battered and the Assad regime collapsed, regional alignments are fluid. Yadlin proposes a "grand bargain" in which:
• Iran abandons uranium enrichment and scales back missiles under strict inspection.
• Hamas surrenders remaining hostages and yields control of Gaza to a technocratic Palestinian administration.
• Syria and Lebanon pledge to disarm non-state militias, preserving Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights.
• The United States leads a nimble monitoring mission modeled on the Multinational Force and Observers in Sinai.
Global implications
Strategists in Beijing and Moscow are poring over the conflict's lessons, particularly Israel's suppression of layered air defenses and real-time intelligence fusion. For Washington, the episode highlights how a close ally can assume the bulk of combat operations while U.S. forces provide high-end enablers. This approach, some analysts say, could be applied in Taiwan's contingencies.
Outlook
Negotiations are expected to resume in Vienna later this month, with a 60-day deadline reportedly favored by the White House. Whether Tehran returns in good faith or opts for a covert dash to the bomb will determine whether Operation Rising Lion remains a dramatic but temporary setback or the catalyst for a lasting new Middle Eastern order.
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