Relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have spectacularly imploded, spiraling from a tragic plane crash into a full-blown diplomatic crisis. The past week has seen a volley of tit-for-tat actions, including the arrest of Russian journalists in Baku, the cancellation of high-level government meetings, and the publication of state-media articles comparing Vladimir Putin’s Russia to Nazi Germany, pushing the two nominal partners to the brink of open hostility.
The rapid deterioration is detailed in a comprehensive analysis by the Armenian news outlet Zham.am, traces the conflict’s roots to late 2024. The catalyst was the downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger jet over Russia. While Moscow claimed the incident occurred during a Ukrainian drone attack and President Putin personally apologized, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev demanded a full admission of guilt, compensation, and the punishment of those responsible—demands the Kremlin did not satisfy.
Following the incident, Baku began a systematic dismantling of Russian influence. In February, it ordered the closure of the Russian cultural agency Rossotrudnichestvo and the “Russian House.” The liquidation of the Sputnik Azerbaijan news agency followed this. The rift widened in May when President Aliyev rejected an invitation to Moscow’s Victory Day parade, instead hosting Ukraine’s foreign minister in Baku for talks on new investments, a move that reportedly infuriated the Kremlin.
Russia’s retaliation came on June 27. Security forces in Yekaterinburg conducted a significant operation, arresting over 50 people, mostly Azerbaijani nationals, in connection with cold-case crimes from over a decade ago. During the raid, two Azerbaijani citizens died, prompting a “resolute protest” from Baku over their “brutal killing.” Azerbaijan’s parliament immediately canceled a scheduled visit to Moscow, the Culture Ministry scrapped all Russian cultural events, and the Foreign Ministry raided the offices of Sputnik Azerbaijan, arresting its top two editors on June 30. In response, Russia’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Azerbaijani ambassador to protest the “unfriendly actions and illegal arrests.”
The rhetoric has become dangerously inflammatory. Azerbaijan’s state news agency, AzərTAc, accused Russia of using the Ukraine war to suppress its ethnic minorities. More alarmingly, Aygün Attar, head of the Turkey-Azerbaijan Friendship, Cooperation, and Solidarity Foundation, accused Moscow of “state terrorism” and issued a call for the nearly three million Azerbaijanis living in Russia to protest. Russian analysts view this as a direct intervention by Turkey. With calls in Baku to burn the Russian embassy and speculation that Western powers are encouraging Azerbaijan to open a new front against Moscow, the escalating conflict threatens to destabilize the entire South Caucasus region, with inevitable and severe consequences for neighboring Armenia.
Baku Hits Back as Accusations of 'Ethnocide' Fly
The diplomatic feud took another sharp turn as Azerbaijani authorities announced the arrest of two alleged Russian FSB agents operating under journalistic cover at the Sputnik Azerbaijan office. An analysis by Aze. Media framed the raid as a deliberately public message, stating, "Azerbaijan is not a country that leaves its debts unpaid — whether good or bad." The report noted the agents had been under surveillance, and the timing was a direct response to the "ethnically motivated repression in Yekaterinburg."
The aggressive response from Baku comes amid a torrent of fiery accusations from regional commentators. In an interview with Minval.az, Kazakh publicist Arman Shoraev described the events as "revenge against Azerbaijanis for daring to be masters of their land." He argued that Russia's actions are driven by a grim demographic crisis and a desire to artificially slow the decline of the ethnic Russian population through "persecution and ethnocide" against growing Turkic and Caucasian communities. "In the absence of victories on the battlefield, the Kremlin needs something to feed the people," Shoraev said, asserting that Russia is "sliding into a regime even worse than fascism."
Shoraev further claimed Russia's rage is fueled by Azerbaijan's successful reclamation of its territories and its role in a potential Turkey-Armenia rapprochement, which he called the "Kremlin's worst nightmare" as it would unite the Turkic world and isolate Russia from the region. He concluded that the killing of handcuffed detainees in Yekaterinburg was not just a crime but a calculated act of "ethnocide" and a "public punishment meant to send a message."
Photo: Azemedia