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Suwayda on the Brink: Turkish Analyst Fehim Taştekin Warns of a Southern Syrian Meltdown



For three straight days, the normally quiet, Druze-majority province of Suwayda has convulsed with levels of violence absent even at the civil war’s height.  The veteran Turkish Middle-East analyst Fehim Taştekin, in his new 25-minute YouTube broadcast, stresses that the spark came when Sunni Bedouin militiamen manning an illegal checkpoint on the Damascus–Suwayda highway abducted, beat, and robbed a Druze civilian.  Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—the jihadist-dominated alliance that now claims Syria’s Defence and Interior portfolios—seized the incident as a pretext to move south.  Backed by allied tribal fighters, HTS stormed several western villages on Monday, ring-fenced Sweida city from three directions, and on Tuesday morning rolled into the urban core.  

HTS’s Message vs. Druze Demands

HTŞ field commander Ahmad al-Dallati quickly imposed an 08:00–dawn curfew and invited Druze clerics to “co-operate with the state.”  The group frames its offensive as a law-and-order mission targeting “traitors” and “separatists.”  Druze elders counter that they have never sought autonomy, merely:  

1. A civilian constitution

2. Independent legislative, executive, and judicial bodies

3. Joint security with local Druze forces

Sheikh Hikmat al-Hijri, the province’s most influential spiritual leader, initially seemed to bless coexistence.  Hours later, he disavowed the statement, saying it was extracted under duress “to spare our blood.”  Declaring the campaign “an existential genocide,” he urged every Druze—“men, women, young and old”—to resist with any weapon available.  

Israel’s Rapid Intervention

Israel, home to some 150 000 Druze citizens and determined to keep the Suwayda–Daraa–Quneitra triangle demilitarised, did not wait.  Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu authorised strikes on any force “approaching” Suwayda with heavy arms.  By Tuesday evening, Israeli jets had destroyed an HTS-commandeered tank and hit four convoys outside the city, Syrian state TV reported.  Simultaneously, the Israel Defense Forces dug fresh sections of the “Sufa-53 trench” inside Syrian territory, a project Taştekin says aims to create a permanent anti-infiltration corridor.  

Ceasefire Claims, Atrocity Reports  

HTS “Defence Minister” Nurhaf Abu Kasra declared a province-wide ceasefire and pledged to pull armour once “operations” ended.  Ground reality belied the promise: Sweida-based outlets Suwayda 24 and al-Rasid documented renewed shelling, mass looting, and summary executions. Footage circulating on social media shows fighters cutting the moustaches of detained Druze men—a profound cultural insult.  In one incident, gunmen mowed down 15 guests inside the Ridwan family diwān.  Thousands have fled toward rural villages, echoing earlier Syrian front lines.  

Regional Echoes and U.S. Posture

Lebanese Druze leaders Talal Arslan and Walid Jumblatt warned coreligionists not to “trust Israeli promises” and urged a Damascus-brokered settlement.  Across the Atlantic, U.S. envoy Thomas Barak reiterated that Washington backs “one Syria, one army,” signalling little appetite to block HTS so long as it presents itself as the sole national force.  Taştekin warns that success in Sweida could embolden the jihadist alliance to replicate the model east of the Euphrates, stoking Arab–Kurdish friction and undercutting the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces.  

What Next?

With Israeli jets overhead, HTS armour in the streets, and Druze militias vowing last-ditch defence, Sweida teeters between a fragile ceasefire and all-out sectarian war.  “The situation is brutally fluid,” Taştekin concludes.  “By tomorrow morning, the battlefield map— and Syria’s political map—could look entirely different.”

Photo: North Press