In his 9 July column, published just hours before the symbolic destroy a cache of weapons in the Iraqi city of Sulaymaniyah, for the Europe-based daily pro-Kurdish Yeni Özgür Politika newspaper, Rıza warned that "After this act of weapons destruction, advancing the peace and democratization process depends entirely on serious steps to be taken by the AKP (Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party) and the state. Unless language is corrected, all parties unified, (Abdullah) Öcalan's conditions liberalized and these changes legally secured, every other statement is mere demagoguery."
The critical article, reviewed in a policy brief titled "The Kurdish Strategy," outlines a three-stage Kurdish strategy launched in early 2025: Abdullah Öcalan's 27 February "Peace and Democratic Society" call, the PKK's 12th Congress decisions of 5-7 May, and the planned 19 June visual act of disarmament.
Five Demands on Ankara
Rıza's roadmap contains five immediate expectations of the Turkish government:
1. Adopt language that frames the issue as the "Kurdish question and Turkey's democratization," not solely "ending PKK terror."
2. Pursue cross-party consensus rather than electoral tactics aimed at weakening the main opposition CHP.
3. Issue trust-building statements and gestures toward Kurdish actors.
4. Lift Abdullah Öcalan's isolation on İmralı Island and allow him to act as a free negotiator.
5. Enact constitutional and legal reforms to entrench any agreement.
Without this package, Rıza contends, "the bird will remain one-winged"—a Turkish idiom for an unworkable arrangement.
Government Silence and Political Calculus
Ankara has yet to respond formally. Officials have previously insisted that complete disarmament must precede any legislative concessions, a stance Rıza dismisses as a "low-cost strategy" that shifts all the risk to Kurdish fighters. Analysts in Ankara say the AKP, eyeing municipal elections next spring, is reluctant to champion reforms that could alienate nationalist swing voters. Meanwhile, the far-right Nationalist Action Party (MHP) maintains its red line: Öcalan may "speak in Parliament," but only after unconditional surrender.
Regional Stakes
Turkey's regional environment amplifies pressure for a durable settlement. U.S. drawdowns in Syria and Iraq, tighter energy links with the Kurdistan Regional Government, and autonomous Kurdish structures in northeastern Syria collectively heighten Ankara's need for domestic stability. "A window of opportunity is still open," Rıza writes, warning that previous truces in 1999 and 2013 collapsed under mutual distrust and state procrastination.
Three Possible Trajectories
Policy experts echo Rıza's assessment of diverging paths:
• Positive Synchronization — The AKP breaks with precedent, passes an amnesty-plus-reform package, and a Norway-style "truth and reconciliation" commission emerges.
• Managed Delay — Symbolic disarmament proceeds, but a legal vacuum persists, leading to simmering tensions and sporadic violence.
• Reversal — Renewed security operations and mass detentions drive militants back to the mountains, ending the fledgling process.
What Will the Government Do?
With the PKK prepared to take what Rıza calls its "last unilateral step," the spotlight shifts to Ankara. If the government translates the disarmament gesture into a legislative blueprint, Turkey could edge toward the most comprehensive Kurdish settlement in its 102-year republican history. Failure, warns Rıza, would plunge the country back into "a chronic cycle of conflict, camouflaged by demagogy and empty words."
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