TLF Special: ISIS Prepares a Relentless Comeback in Syria and Iraq, Relying on Low-Level Insurgency to Sap Central Authority

The self-declared Islamic State is actively laying the groundwork for its return in both Syria and Iraq, swapping the dream of an open caliphate for a grinding, low-level insurgency meant to exhaust security forces and undercut fragile governments. Events of the past two weeks—most starkly the suicide bombing of Damascus’s Mar Elias Greek Orthodox Church—show that the group is not simply surviving in desert hideouts; it is probing, recruiting, and striking with renewed purpose.

Damascus Bombing Marks a New Phase  

On 22 June, an ISIS cell detonated explosives inside the Mar Elias church, killing twenty-six worshippers and wounding more than fifty. Follow-up raids around the capital uncovered suicide vests, a vehicle-borne bomb, and a network that moved fighters from the al-Hol detention camp into the Syrian desert. Although overall attack numbers in Syria have fallen during the past year, the capital’s first suicide blast since the fall of the Assad regime confirms that ISIS retains the capability—and the intent—to deliver spectacular blows when political transitions create openings.

Smouldering Insurgency in Eastern Syria  

Away from the headlines, ISIS gunmen continue to ambush patrols, plant roadside bombs, and extort local business owners in Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa, and Homs. Each time Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces hand an area to new authorities, sleeper cells test the fresh lines of defense, hoping to prove that no garrison can protect every oil well, checkpoint, or village elder.

Iraq: Fewer Incidents, Same Strategic Logic  

Iraqi officials celebrate a sharp statistical decline in attacks, yet rural districts still witness nightly hit-and-run raids. Security operations have killed thirty militants and detained seventy-four suspects since January. Still, commanders concede that small “desert brigades” survive by taxing farmers, sabotaging power lines, and intimidating tribal sheikhs who cooperate with the Baghdad government.

Online and Dark-Web Recruitment Drives  

While ground cells regroup, ISIS remains hyperactive on encrypted social-media channels and dark-web forums. Investigators tracking the group’s digital footprint report a fresh push to direct would-be fighters to the “fronts of Iraq and Syria.” Current propaganda targets conservative Sunni communities in the North Caucasus, Turkey, and Mesopotamia, urging Russian, Turkish, Iraqi, and Syrian citizens to “join the caravan before the gates close.” Videos highlight recent operations, celebrate the Damascus bombing, and provide instructions for covert travel along rat-lines that stretch from the Georgian border to the Iraqi desert.

Structural Gaps the Group Exploits  

Military analysts point to three factors that allow ISIS to endure: lingering security vacuums created by Syria’s ongoing transition and Iraq’s political gridlock; reduced international attention as Western forces redeploy to other crises; and the group’s proven ability to blend spectacular terror with day-to-day guerrilla warfare. So long as each village headman can be threatened at night and each police outpost stretched thin by roadside bombs, the militants believe time works in their favor.

Conclusion  

Whether detonating bombs in a Damascus church or recruiting teenagers from Grozny and Gaziantep on the dark web, ISIS is unmistakably preparing its comeback in Syria and Iraq. The campaign may look scattered and low-scale, but that is by design: a war of attrition aimed at corroding the authority of two already strained states. Unless regional governments—and their international partners—close both the physical and digital gaps the group now exploits, today’s flickering insurgency risks rekindling into tomorrow’s full-blown revival.

Photo: Wikipedia Commons