Turkey's main opposition, the Republican People's Party (CHP), continues to hold a lead over the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), according to a new national poll released this week. The survey, conducted by the research company Piar Araştırma, indicates a significant political shift, with President Erdoğan's ruling coalition collectively falling below the 40% support mark.
The poll, which surveyed 3,160 people across 26 provinces between July 7-9, asked respondents: "If a general election were held this Sunday, which party would you vote for?" The results, with undecided voters distributed, place the secularist CHP at 32.5% of the vote. This puts them more than two points ahead of the AKP, which polled at 30.2%.
The most striking figure from the survey is the combined strength of the ruling People's Alliance. When the AKP's 30.2% is added to its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which registered 8.6% support, their total backing comes to just 38.8%. This drop below the crucial 40% threshold suggests a growing challenge to the coalition that has dominated Turkish politics for years, signaling potential vulnerability ahead of future elections.
Meanwhile, the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Equality and Democracy (DEM) Party demonstrates a steady performance, capturing 7.7% of the vote. This result is significant as it clears Turkey's 7% parliamentary threshold, solidifying the DEM Party's position as a considerable force in the legislature and a potential kingmaker in a closely contested political environment.
Further down the list, a collection of smaller nationalist and conservative parties, while individually polling below the parliamentary entry barrier, could collectively play a decisive role in future coalition arithmetic. The ultra-nationalist Victory (Zafer) Party polled at 5.1%, followed by the nationalist Good (İyi) Party at 4.6% and the Islamist New Welfare (Yeniden Refah) Party at 3.8%. Though they might not win seats independently, their voter bases could prove critical in alliance-building for both presidential and parliamentary elections. Their ability to draw votes from the larger blocs makes them important players to watch as Turkey's political landscape continues to fragment and evolve.