The apparent contradiction is dissected by veteran political scientist Baskın Oran in Artı Gerçek’s 10 July column, Oran argues that the ruling bloc is running two tracks simultaneously: a high-stakes Kurdish opening meant to stabilise its southeastern flank, and a sweeping internal crackdown designed to neutralise every significant opposition centre—from CHP-run city halls to outspoken newsrooms—before local elections can translate popular discontent into votes.
Opposition Mayors and MPs in the Crosshairs
Dawn raids this week on 17 CHP municipalities ended with 12 mayors jailed on corruption and “terror” counts, while the Interior Ministry confirmed investigations into four more districts. Parliament is now holding 240 motions to lift the immunity of 61 CHP lawmakers, including party leader Özgür Özel, who already faces probes for “insulting the president” and “incitement.” Oran warns that these moves echo the 2016 trustee wave that gutted Kurdish-led councils: “Today’s objective is a ‘kayyım (trustees) model’ for the CHP itself.”
Journalists Charged, Airwaves Sanitised
The legal net has expanded beyond politicians. Investigative reporter Timur Soykan was detained under Penal Code 217 for tweeting that “the meaning of the ballot box is disappearing.” Even entertainment figures are vulnerable: talent agent Ayşe Barım has spent five months in pre-trial detention on opaque charges. Despite these arrests, state broadcaster TRT mentioned the most recent soldier deaths three times an hour—never once noting methane poisoning—creating a combat illusion Oran likens to “1959 Menderes radios.”
A Peace Process Undercut by Caves and Lawsuits
While Öcalan and the pro-Kurdish DEM Party issued condolences for the fallen troops, critics question why conscripts were sent “into unknown caves” on Iraqi soil during peace talks. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for his part, filed a 500,000-lira defamation suit against Özel after the opposition chief mocked the ruling party’s claim of being “Turkey’s number-one party.” For Oran, lawsuits and lethal cave missions form a single pattern: **projecting strength to offset mounting economic woes—bankruptcy filings are up 23 percent and over one million citizens face debt collection.
Echoes of 1959, Digital-Age Risks
Oran recalls the Democrat Party’s 1959 “Tahkikat Komisyonu (Research Commission),” which preceded the 1960 coup and Prime Minister Adnan Menderes’s execution. Although he rules out a modern military takeover, he warns that criminalising dissent can boomerang in an era when every arrest hashtags across social media.
Parliament’s summer recess leaves prosecutors unimpeded, and analysts expect fresh arrest warrants for CHP mayors before lawmakers reconvene. Peace emissaries will likely press ahead in Suleymaniyah—yet their success may hinge less on what happens there than on whether Ankara’s domestic hard line moderates. As Oran concludes, “The margin of freedom is contracting so fast that courage itself has become news.”
Photo: Footage from Reuters