On August 8, U.S. President Donald Trump brought Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the State Dining Room to unveil a document grandly titled "The Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity" (TRIPP). According to USA Today, the agreement grants the United States exclusive development rights over a 20-mile multi-modal corridor that will cut across Armenia's southern Syunik province, linking mainland Azerbaijan with its Nakhichevan exclave. Trump simultaneously lifted long-standing restrictions on U.S.–Azerbaijan defense cooperation, hailing the deal as a "great victory" that "many tried to reach but failed".
Celebrations in Washington, Consternation in Yerevan
While Aliyev and Pashinyan applauded the American president—each suggesting a Nobel Peace Prize would be fitting—the mood in Armenia quickly soured. Former Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian described the handover of a 99-year lease on Armenian soil as "an unheard-of, unconstitutional diplomatic failure" (hraparak.am, August 9, 2025).
Ex-premier Hrant Bagratyan was blunter: "Pashinyan gave away sovereign territory and torpedoed the Minsk Group, all while Aliyev refused to sign a real peace treaty." (hraparak.am, August 9, 2025).
A widely shared post on Armenian social media distilled the perceived imbalance:
• Azerbaijan gets a land bridge, defense cooperation with Washington, and the formal liquidation of the OSCE Minsk Group.
• The United States secures a long-term logistics hub beyond Russian or Iranian reach.
• Armenia, critics say, receives only a temporary lull in hostilities (hraparak.am, August 9, 2025; Tert. am, August 8, 2025).
Political analyst Suren Surenyants concluded that the pact delivers "clear and long-term strategic and economic benefits" to Baku and Washington, but leaves Yerevan with "limited sovereignty and a geopolitical time-bomb" (Tert.am, August 9, 2025).
From Zangezur to "new Cyprus"?
The most alarming comparison being made in Yerevan is that Armenia is now on the path to becoming a "new Cyprus"—a small state permanently partitioned and militarily constrained by a larger Turkish-speaking neighbor.
Stanford-trained political scientist Artur Khachikyan argues that the corridor will "economically colonize" Syunik, paving the way for Turkish and Azeri business ventures that will de facto detach the province: "After that we will never see Meghri or Zangezur again… we remain defenseless and unarmed, surrounded by Turks" (Aravot.am, August 9, 2025).
Former tax-service chief David Ananyan calls the TRIPP documents a "road-map for the Cypriotization of Armenia" signed "under the high auspices of the U.S. president" (Tert.am, August 9, 2025).
Domestic Backlash Against Pashinyan
The corridor deal drops into an already boiling domestic scene, according to the opposition outlet 168. As of now, the prime minister is battling street protests, accusations of authoritarianism, and a showdown with the Armenian Apostolic Church (168.am, August 2025). Two archbishops and billionaire philanthropist Samvel Karapetyan are in jail, while police have been deployed to the seat of the Catholicos in Etchmiadzin.
"Pashinyan has crossed all red lines; his days are numbered," columnist Harut Sassounian warned, predicting that economic expropriations and the corridor lease will scare away foreign investors and galvanize the diaspora (168 am).
Sovereignty Versus Security: A Legal Gray Zone
Government supporters insist that the corridor will remain under Armenian jurisdiction and be jointly monitored by U.S. engineers. Yet, the optics of Aliyev co-signing a document that grants America a 43-kilometer strip inside Armenia contradict that narrative, says former Ambassador-at-Large Edmon Marukyan: "If Aliyev's name is on the deed, then Azerbaijan is effectively a shareholder" (Aravot.am, August 9, 2025).
Analyst Armen Baghdasaryan adds that any special status road "means peace is not truly established," otherwise ordinary highways would suffice. He also questions how an "American corridor" could operate while Russian troops remain stationed along the same frontier, forecasting "noise—and perhaps blood—before Moscow or Tehran step aside" (Aravot.am, August 9, 2025).
Regional Tremors: Moscow and Tehran Watch Warily
Iranian officials have repeatedly warned that they will not tolerate foreign military or political footholds in Syunik, which is also their sole land link to the Eurasian market. Former Minister Oskanian notes that Armenian law forbids leasing land for extraterritorial use and that Tehran's red line "is not merely rhetoric" (Tert.am, August 8, 2025).
Russia, still locked in conflict in Ukraine, has treated the South Caucasus as its sphere of influence for two centuries. Baghdasaryan believes Moscow "will try to resist by overt or covert methods… Russia did not conquer the region just to surrender it without shedding blood" (Aravot.am).
What Comes Next?
The TRIPP declaration is not a comprehensive peace treaty. Aliyev pointedly refused to sign such a document, retaining leverage to press for further concessions—among them constitutional changes in Armenia, "the "return of Azerbaijani refugees," and hefty reparations (Tert.am, August 9, 2025).
Opposition strategist Vahe Hovhannisyan predicts that Baku will now push to remove Armenian border guards entirely from the route, insist on Azerbaijani resettlement inside Armenia, and keep its forward positions near Jermuk. "At the end, no Armenian, no border guard—only a corridor that legitimizes further invasion," he warns (Tert.am, August 9, 2025).
There is also growing talk of snap elections. Some observers think Pashinyan may seek a fresh mandate before the "euphoria" fades; others believe the mounting backlash could instead trigger his downfall (Tert.am; 168.am).
The Cyprus Analogy—Fair or Alarmist?
Cyprus has been de facto partitioned since 1974, with a U.N. buffer zone separating Greek and Turkish forces while foreign guarantor powers hold sway. Armenian critics fear a similar fate: an internationalized corridor policed by outsiders, permanent foreign bases, and a diplomatically frozen conflict.
Supporters of the TRIPP approach counter that economic interdependence could finally anchor peace between Yerevan and Baku. "We are doing this project so that citizens of both countries can use each other's infrastructure without fear," Pashinyan said after the signing ceremony (Aravot.am, August 9, 2025).
Yet even moderates concede that without reciprocal access—Armenian trains to the Caspian, for instance—the corridor risks entrenching asymmetry rather than dissolving it.
For now, cafe-lined streets in Yerevan remain lively, but the sense of existential anxiety is palpable. As Khachikyan puts it, "Our people are under the illusion that money will flow and we will become the United States. These are fairy tales." (Aravot.am).
Whether the TRIPP corridor becomes a bridge to prosperity or the first step toward "Cypriotization" hinges on factors far beyond a 20-mile stretch of asphalt: Russia's reaction, Iran's tolerance, Azerbaijan's next move, and Armenia's own political will.
What is clear is that Syunik has become the epicenter of a new Great Game. The coming months will show whether Armenians can navigate that game without losing the very sovereignty the Trump Route was supposed to safeguard.
*Reporting compiled from USA Today, hraparak.am, Tert.am, Aravot. am, 168.am and related social-media statements, all dated 8–9 August 2025.*
**Photo: Tert