.jpg)
A Israeli security analyst is sounding the alarm that while Israel stands on the brink of historic security pacts with Syria and Lebanon, a new and more formidable danger is emerging in the form of a radical Sunni axis led by Turkey and Qatar. This assessment argues that this new alignment threatens to replace Iran as the principal challenge to regional stability, casting a long shadow over unprecedented diplomatic breakthroughs in the north.
According to a recent analysis by Yoav Limor for The Jerusalem Post, the dramatic reshaping of the Middle East has created both opportunity and peril. The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and a devastating military blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon have severely diminished Iranian influence, paving the way for American-led mediation. The report details how President Donald Trump's envoy, Tom Barrack, has been shuttling between Jerusalem, Beirut, and Damascus to broker understandings that seemed impossible just months ago. These developments are a direct result of Israel's military successes and the subsequent decline of Tehran's regional power.
In Lebanon, the weakening of Hezbollah has empowered President Joseph Aoun to pursue a nationalistic agenda focused on reconstruction. Driven by a desire for Saudi funds and national sovereignty, Aoun is reportedly moving to demilitarize southern Lebanon and disarm Hezbollah—conditions long demanded by Israel. The presence of US CENTCOM personnel alongside American mediators is seen as providing a credible framework for this process, representing a monumental shift in Lebanese politics.
Similarly, Syria's interim President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is motivated by the pragmatic need for international legitimacy and reconstruction funds. His new government is believed to be willing to accommodate Israel's security demands, including keeping jihadist groups away from the border and refraining from any threatening military buildup. However, the Israeli analyst highlights a critical caveat: al-Sharaa's "troubling proximity" to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. It is this connection that fuels the warning of an emerging Sunni axis, with Turkey and Qatar forming a new ideological and strategic bloc that could pose a direct, long-term threat to Israel.
Limor's analysis concludes with a stern caution against premature celebration. The potential agreements with Syria and Lebanon, while promising, are being made with leaders in precarious positions. He stresses that any deals must be with state institutions, not just individuals, and be reinforced by an international "protective umbrella" led by the United States. The core message is clear: as Israel leverages military gains into diplomatic progress, it must not be blind to the new storm gathering on the horizon, a challenge that may prove even more complex than the one it is leaving behind. According to Limor, "Together with Qatar, they could form a radical Sunni axis that would replace Iran and the Shiites as the principal threat to Israel."
Photo: Turkish Presidency