Lebanon has emerged as the frontline test of President Donald Trump's drive to reset the Middle East around commerce, expanded normalization, and containment of Iran, with Washington proposing a deal to disarm Hezbollah in exchange for an Israeli ceasefire and withdrawal from southern Lebanon.
Andrew Parasiliti, writing in Al-Monitor, reports that the Lebanese Council of Ministers has endorsed the objectives of the US plan and tasked the Lebanese Armed Forces to draft a Hezbollah disarmament blueprint by the end of August, even as Hezbollah and Iran reject the proposal. US Syria envoy and Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack is expected in Beirut next week to press the agreement, which would unlock Gulf and European economic support and improve Lebanon's standing with the World Bank and IMF if Hezbollah disarms.
Parasiliti describes Trump's approach as a mix of sustained diplomacy and a clear endgame: a region powered by trade rather than conflict, expansion of the Abraham Accords, and sidelining Iran's proxy capabilities while keeping a door open to talks under the right conditions. A deepened partnership with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar underpins the effort.
The Lebanon track carries risks. The "One Nation, One Army" momentum must be nurtured, with Gulf states being urged to support moderates across all factions. Shiite communities in the south seek guarantees on security and reconstruction if Hezbollah is sidelined, and broad segments of Lebanese society remain wary of Sunni radicalism spilling over from Syria.
Iran's influence is in flux. During a visit to Beirut following a stop in Baghdad, Iran's security chief Ali Larijani conveyed opposition to Hezbollah's disarmament but said Tehran would respect a decision reached by the Lebanese government in consultation with Hezbollah. President Joseph Aoun told Larijani that Iran's friendship must extend to all Lebanese and that the disarmament plan will proceed. Qatar, with its channels to both Washington and Tehran and its substantial financial resources, is well-positioned to support centrist politics in Lebanon and clarify the costs of Iranian policies during the transition.
In Syria, the path is "the beginning of the beginning." The SDF is in no rush to deal with Damascus. A Hasakah conference demanded a pluralist constitution, and talks in Damascus and Amman have resumed without yielding any breakthroughs. Parasiliti suggests a federal model—empowering local leadership and minimizing centralized security forces—could better fit Syria's fractured reality. Turkey is likely to resist formal federalism even as it encourages dialogue; Ankara is also exploring an amnesty with PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has renounced armed struggle. Israel, wary of President Ahmed al-Sharaa's jihadist background, backs Druze communities and prefers to keep Damascus contained, a stance that risks prolonged conflict absent a new political compact.
Iraq is the "missing piece" for now, despite its potential to drive regional integration and serve as a guarantor for both a federal Syria and southern Lebanon. Baghdad and Damascus are discussing the reopening of the Kirkuk–Baniyas pipeline, which could potentially exceed 1.4 million barrels per day and generate over $3 billion annually in transit fees. However, Iran's influence in Iraq's energy sector makes progress unlikely. Larijani signed a security memorandum in Baghdad and received a warmer welcome there than in Beirut. Washington has warned of sanctions if Iraq formalizes the role of pro-Iran militias, while Baghdad–Erbil tensions persist. November elections could reset Iraq's alignment toward the United States, with implications for Syria and Lebanon.
Gaza remains the hardest "last mile." The end state, in Parasiliti's telling, still requires a future Palestinian state without Hamas alongside Israel, in a region centered on commerce and normalization. The costs of the Israel-Hamas war—beginning with Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attacks and the devastating Israeli response—have produced a humanitarian catastrophe and a fraught diplomatic landscape, with Israeli plans to reoccupy Gaza described as ominous. Even so, Parasiliti sees a broader shift in consciousness driving the diplomacy needed to end the war.
Photo: Israel-Syria border, Israeli media