Russia is moving to reassert itself in Syria through the revival of military police patrols and deeper security coordination with Damascus, as the country’s transitional authorities seek to recast ties with Moscow into a regulated “security partnership” after the fall of the Assad regime. The shift, crystallized during Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani’s July 31 visit to Moscow, signals an effort by both sides to balance Russia’s strategic foothold in Syria with the country’s drive for sovereignty and stability along its volatile frontlines in the south and northeast.
Enab Baladi detailed the developments in a new report, which cited officials and analysts describing how Moscow aims to safeguard its interests and avoid the appearance of a “strategic loss” following the regime change in Damascus.
According to the report, Moscow has emphasized that it is adapting to Syria’s new political reality, seeking to preserve key gains, such as its naval facility in Tartus and the Hmeimim airbase on the Mediterranean coast. For Damascus, the recalibration marks a departure from the Assad-era reliance on Russian firepower and airstrikes against opposition-held areas, toward a model centered on cooperation, security coordination, and clearly defined legal arrangements.
Dmitry Bridzhe, an expert with the Russian International Affairs Council, told Enab Baladi that a key outcome of al-Shibani’s meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and later President Vladimir Putin was Damascus’ expression of interest in the return of Russian military police patrols to southern provinces. The patrols would mirror deployments that were in place before Bashar al-Assad’s fall in December 2024 and are seen by Damascus as a tool to curb Israeli incursions and stabilize southern frontlines.
Bridzhe noted that recent Russian movements in and around Qamishli, in northeastern Syria, have occurred without participation from the Syrian Democratic Forces, a sign of a new chapter in military and security ties between Moscow and the Syrian government. He framed the reliance on Russian military police as a practical instrument for managing the southern theater and deterring cross-border escalation.
The outlines of this next phase were drafted by a joint Syrian-Russian team, with an outsized role played by Maher al-Sharaa, Secretary-General of the Syrian Presidency, who helped engineer security communication channels and set political “rules of engagement” with Moscow, according to Bridzhe. He described al-Sharaa as a conduit between Syria’s security and diplomatic institutions—providing political cover for operational plans and ensuring that the Russian track remains embedded within Syria’s national security framework. Foreign Minister al-Shibani and Defense Minister Lt. Gen. Marhaf Abu Qasra have been tasked with translating these understandings into field arrangements.
For Damascus, the return of Russian patrols in the south serves two purposes: to limit Israeli military activity and to bring in a trusted external stabilizer to prevent local or regional spillovers. For Moscow, the move offers a pathway to reassert its southern role, safeguard strategic assets in Tartus and Hmeimim, and retain leverage as a potential mediator.
Bridzhe emphasized that Russia’s broader Middle Eastern calculus hinges on maintaining its Syrian bases, calling their retention a litmus test for the future of the partnership. Damascus, for its part, is seeking a legal and institutional framework that would transform the Russian footprint from an imposed reality into a regulated presence, governed by transparency, timelines, and internal oversight, thereby protecting Syrian sovereignty.
Regionally, Moscow has presented its approach as a “balanced presence” that couples the defense of Syria’s territorial unity with tailored security arrangements on the southern border and calibrated coordination with influential regional capitals. Bridzhe predicted a “cautiously pragmatic” posture from the United States under the Trump administration—prioritizing the protection of U.S. forces in eastern Syria, constraining Iranian expansion in the south, and maintaining deconfliction channels with Russia. Washington could view Russia’s patrols as a source of tactical stability, he said, as long as American freedom of action against ISIS is unhindered. Israel’s assessment, meanwhile, appears tied to whether the new Moscow–Damascus understandings effectively limit Iranian entrenchment.
Signs of a broader security role for Russia extend beyond the south. Bridzhe said the return of Russian military police patrols alongside Syria’s Internal Security Forces in coastal areas is intended to secure those zones and reinforce Russia’s role as a security guarantor. The Russian daily Kommersant recently reported that Damascus had formally expressed interest in reviving Russian patrols in southern provinces, portraying the step as a means of curbing Israeli activity following the establishment of a buffer zone in late 2024—announced by Israel as necessary to protect its northern border and the Druze community. Russia, the paper noted, was forced to scale back its presence in the area amid the political transition in Damascus.
Kommersant also cited increased Russian activity around Qamishli as evidence of expanding cooperation with the Syrian government, adding that patrols there have proceeded without SDF involvement amid the absence of a government-SDF understanding over Kurdish-majority territories. Before the change of power in Damascus, some Russian experts argued that Russia’s southern deployments served Israeli interests by discouraging the spread of Iran-aligned formations—though they acknowledged the challenge of establishing clear criteria for identifying such forces on the ground.
Al-Shibani’s July 31 visit to Moscow was followed by high-level defense talks, during which Defense Minister Marhaf Abu Qasra held extended meetings with Russian Defense Minister Andrey Belousov. Al-Shibani met with Foreign Minister Lavrov and subsequently with President Putin at the Kremlin, where both sides affirmed the start of a new phase in Syrian–Russian relations, grounded in respect for sovereignty, support for Syria’s territorial unity, and Moscow’s rejection of Israeli interventions in Syria.
As both capitals test this recalibrated partnership, the immediate focus is on security architecture: restoring patrols, defining lines of responsibility, and setting rules to manage flashpoints in the south and northeast. The longer-term measure of success will likely hinge on whether the parties can codify Russia’s presence within a Syrian-led legal framework—one that balances Moscow’s strategic imperatives with Damascus’ bid to reconstitute state authority and avoid new entanglements.