Turkish officials are moving closer to signing a preliminary agreement for the purchase of 40 to 50 Eurofighter Typhoon combat aircraft, a deal that defence planners see as only one element of a far broader modernisation drive designed to keep the Turkish Air Force dominant on two fronts at once.
The momentum behind a Typhoon order follows an internal needs assessment that warns many of the country's 235 legacy F-16s are reaching the end of their service life and that Turkey may ultimately require a 500-strong fast-jet fleet to prevail simultaneously against potential adversaries such as Israel and Greece, both of which are upgrading to fifth-generation platforms.
A new study by SETA's security analyst Murat Aslan lists several criteria shaping Ankara's procurement calculus: analysis of the regional threat environment, the ability to operate in vastly different geographies—from the hot, dusty deserts of the Middle East to the icy winds of the Black Sea—and the need for aircraft that can climb rapidly to 65,000 feet, manoeuvre aggressively, and prosecute targets at long range while remaining difficult to detect on radar.
Eurofighters would handle high-altitude air-superiority missions, while a parallel order for 40 F-16 Block 70 "Vipers" is expected to cover multirole duties. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler told parliament during 2025 budget hearings that Ankara had dropped plans to buy 79 F-16 modernisation kits in favour of the new-build aircraft—an apparent hedge in case Washington fails to readmit Turkey into the F-35 programme, from which it was suspended in 2019.
Analysts say the twin-track approach buys time for Ankara's ambitious indigenous fighter effort. The fifth-generation KAAN is scheduled to enter service in 2028 and could evolve into a sixth-generation platform through integration with stealthy ANKA-3 loyal-wingman drones and artificial intelligence-enabled mission systems. Meanwhile, the Hürjet advanced trainer is being adapted into a light fighter that might one day replace older F-16s altogether.
Yet the shopping list does not end with crewed aircraft. Turkish officials are pressing for rapid deployment of AESA radars such as the domestically developed MURAD 100-A, arguing that modern sensors, electronic-warfare pods, and standoff munitions are indispensable force multipliers. Aslan's report stresses that any new fighter must be fielded within a networked "air-and-space combat architecture" able to deny adversaries the initiative and, if necessary, "transfer the battle to the aggressor's territory".
Diplomatic Headwinds
Diplomatic headwinds remain. Athens and Jerusalem have reportedly mounted behind-the-scenes campaigns in Washington and Berlin to block the sale of advanced aircraft to Turkey, according to regional media. Turkish officials counter that the Eurofighter consortium needs Ankara's order to keep its production lines operational and that NATO's southeastern flank benefits when Turkey can guarantee air dominance without external permissions.
Should the Eurofighter deal close before year-end, first deliveries could begin in 2028—roughly the same window in which KAAN is slated to enter squadron service. Together with the incoming F-16 Block 70s, the mixed fleet would give the Turkish Air Force a quantitative and qualitative edge while indigenous projects mature. As one senior officer put it off the record, "We cannot afford a capability gap in this decade; modern jets must arrive before the old ones retire."
With the Middle East still reeling from the 12-day Iran-Israel clash in June and the eastern Mediterranean witnessing unprecedented naval drills, Ankara's bet on a layered, partly self-reliant air-power model underscores a larger lesson: in an era of contested skies, the freedom to fly begins long before the wheels leave the runway.
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