Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has forced a reassessment of security and economic alignments across Europe, with attention increasingly turning to the Balkans. As Moscow’s military bandwidth remains tied to Ukraine, analysts and policymakers are debating whether a genuine power vacuum is emerging in Southeastern Europe—and, if so, whether the United Kingdom and Turkey are poised to fill it together.
This article draws on a new analysis by Ahmet Erdi Öztürk, published on August 17, in Turkish, in the Yetkin Report. The piece argues that London’s post-Brexit search for a global role and Ankara’s deep historical, cultural, and political ties in the Balkans make joint initiatives both likely and consequential.
Existing cooperation between the two NATO allies is visible in security, politics, and economics. In Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina, UK and Turkish deployments, training, and advisory roles buttress local defense capacities. Turkish drones have added new capabilities to the region’s security architecture, while British maritime and radar expertise complements that footprint. Diplomatically, London and Ankara have backed the Euro-Atlantic integration of Balkan states, pairing the UK’s leverage with Turkey’s on-the-ground relationships.
Economically, Turkish-led infrastructure projects and British capital are increasingly converging, laying what Öztürk describes as a new geoeconomic artery that ties the Balkans more tightly to Europe’s core. Proponents argue that such connectivity could accelerate growth, foster regional stability, and mitigate vulnerabilities to coercive leverage over energy or transportation corridors.
Looking ahead, more ambitious scenarios are under discussion. Chief among them is the prospect of a UK military base in Croatia—an Adriatic foothold that could reshape regional balances while reverberating into the Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. Coupled with Turkey’s logistics, Black Sea–Mediterranean linkages, and operational experience, the two countries could stitch together a strategic arc from the Adriatic to North Africa, enhancing NATO’s southern flank and adding depth to deterrence.
New economic opportunities are also emerging, particularly in the realm of critical minerals. Rare earth elements in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and North Macedonia are vital for batteries, wind turbines, and microchips—inputs central to Europe’s energy transition and high-tech ambitions. Turkey’s proximity and networks could help bring these resources to European markets. At the same time, the UK’s financing and advanced technology could catalyze responsible development, potentially recasting the Balkans from a transit corridor into a resource axis that strengthens Europe’s strategic autonomy.
Yet the path is strewn with uncertainties. First, Russia’s influence may be diminished but not gone: energy ties, Slavic-Orthodox affinities, and historical linkages—particularly via Serbia—still provide Moscow with levers in the region. Second, public sentiment in the Balkans can be wary of Western-led initiatives. At the same time, Turkey’s familiarity may mitigate suspicions in some quarters; a UK-Turkey tandem could still trigger nationalist pushback that complicates implementation. Third, a renewed US surge into the Balkans—should instability spike—could narrow the UK’s room for maneuver and force Turkey to balance between London and Washington.
These constraints underscore the risk of over-reading a “vacuum.” If Russia is not fully receding, the Balkans remain a competitive arena. If local societies are skeptical, projects could stall. And if Washington reasserts primacy, British ambitions may be bracketed within a broader US-led framework—with Ankara again playing a careful balancing role.
For now, the convergence of British and Turkish interests offers a potentially historic opening: to anchor stability, bolster NATO’s southern flank, and diversify Europe’s critical supply chains. Whether that opening hardens into a durable strategy—or proves a momentary alignment shaped by the Ukraine war’s contingencies—will hinge on managing regional sensitivities, calibrating with US and EU priorities, and delivering early, tangible benefits on the ground.
Photo: Generated by the Gemini AI.