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Ankara Signals Potential for New Military Incursion into Northeast Syria

A series of high-level diplomatic meetings and security discussions over the past week has fueled speculation that Türkiye may be preparing for a new cross-border military operation in northeastern Syria. The potential campaign would reportedly target positions held by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and its affiliate, the People's Protection Units (YPG), which Ankara considers a security threat linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK).

While no official announcement has been made, the convergence of military planning and diplomatic outreach suggests a serious consideration of renewed action in the region.

According to emerging reports, a potential operation could be structured in multiple phases. The first and primary stage would allegedly focus on a comprehensive campaign against SDF and YPG positions in northeastern Syria. Subsequent phases are reportedly under consideration, potentially expanding the scope to other areas in the country, including coastal regions and southern territories, where other foreign military presences are also reported.

The primary ground force for such an incursion is the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA). In a notable development, some reports indicate that the plan involves integrating SNA units with elements of the Damascus-based Syrian Arab Army (SAA), suggesting a new level of potential coordination between Ankara and the Syrian government.

Intensive diplomatic efforts parallel these military signals. Turkish Minister of National Defence Yaşar Güler and Minister of Foreign Affairs Hakan Fidan have recently engaged in discussions with counterparts in Moscow, Baghdad, and Damascus. Talks have reportedly centered on "security cooperation" and the future status of the SDF. Sources indicate that Türkiye is seeking specific commitments from the Syrian government, including the integration of SDF fighters into the Syrian Arab Army and a firm rejection of any future autonomous Kurdish entity in the north.

Regarding the timing, officials have stated that the Turkish Armed Forces, intelligence services, and security units will be ready to deploy once preparations are finalized. Ankara appears to be pursuing a dual-track approach: keeping diplomatic channels open while expressing its resolve to proceed with military action if its core security demands are not met.

If launched, the operation would aim to address Türkiye's long-standing security concerns along its southern border. However, it also carries the potential to significantly alter the complex geopolitical and demographic dynamics of northern Syria. For now, the international community is closely monitoring whether ongoing diplomatic negotiations will yield a breakthrough or if Ankara will decide to move forward with a military incursion. 

Photo: Generated by Gemini AI.