A peace agreement was initialled on August 8 in Washington, DC, between Azerbaijan and Armenia, marking a diplomatic breakthrough after years of conflict. Yet inside Azerbaijan, rights advocates and independent observers say the conditions for "positive peace" remain elusive: political prisoners remain behind bars, media pluralism has been dismantled, land borders are still closed, and public debate is constrained by securitized rhetoric. That disconnect has raised questions about whether an external settlement can translate into durable reconciliation without internal reforms.
In OC Media's analysis published on September 15, author Vafa Naghiyeva argues that genuine peace requires more than a ceasefire. Drawing on sociologist Johan Galtung's distinction between "negative peace" (the absence of war) and "positive peace" (the absence of structural violence), the piece contends that reforms on rights, media freedoms, and civic inclusion are prerequisites for lasting stability.
Hopes briefly rose among civil society that political prisoners might be freed following the Washington meeting, including peace activist Bahruz Samadov. A purported recording stoked expectations, circulated on social media, of a conversation between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and former US President Donald Trump in which detainees were reportedly discussed. No releases materialised, however, and authorities have offered no timeline for amnesties or broader liberalisation.
Since 2020, President Ilham Aliyev's "iron fist" rhetoric has become central to state discourse, framing politics through a militarised lens and narrowing space for criticism. Activists say anti-corruption campaigners and election observers are regularly smeared as "pro-Armenian" or "traitors," chilling debate. Pro-government media have long amplified enemy narratives and hate speech, a pattern legal scholars and rights groups warn will not simply dissipate with the stroke of a pen.
Meanwhile, the media crackdown has deepened. Toward the end of 2023, seven Abzas Media employees were detained, followed in 2024 by seven journalists from Toplum TV and another seven from Meydan TV — arrests that advocates call fabricated. Reporters Without Borders ranks Azerbaijan 167th of 180 countries in its latest World Press Freedom Index, underscoring its reputation as one of the world's most repressive environments for journalists.
The country's land borders, which had been closed since the onset of COVID-19 in 2020, were extended again in June 2025 until October 1, officially on public health grounds. Yet in a September 24, 2024, speech, Aliyev linked the closures to geopolitical and security considerations. Critics argue the prolonged shutdown hinders people-to-people contact and everyday trade — precisely the social interactions that could underpin trust and normalization with Armenia.
Naghiyeva and other activists argue that the current process remains top-down, with civil society, independent media, and grassroots groups being sidelined. Without prisoner releases, restored media freedom, transparency, and inclusive dialogue, they warn, "peace" risks remaining only on paper. With rights groups estimating more than 350 political prisoners, the core question lingers: can Baku align external diplomacy with internal reform fast enough to make this peace stick?