Erdogan's White House Visit Highlights Trump's Transactional Diplomacy and Turkey's Delicate Balancing Act
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's upcoming visit to the White House tomorrow marks another chapter in Donald Trump's second-term foreign policy approach, where billion-dollar deals have replaced democratic values as the currency of international relations. The meeting exemplifies what has become known as Trump's "CEO diplomacy" – treating global politics not as a matter of principles and doctrines, but as a matter of balance sheet items.
According to political analyst Evren Balta, writing for T24, while the photo opportunity at the White House may project a partnership, it could generate political costs rather than legitimacy in Turkey, where anti-American sentiment is strong. "Trump's CEO diplomacy operates through billion-dollar orders, but in a public opinion environment where anti-Americanism is powerful, this photograph may produce political cost rather than legitimacy," Balta observed on September 24, 2025.
The diplomatic choreography is predictable: two leaders shaking hands on the White House lawn, exchanging pleasantries about a historical partnership. Yet in Trump's era, surprises can never be ruled out. The visit comes amid tensions, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio responding sharply to Erdogan's criticism that Trump had failed to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza despite promises. Rubio noted that many leaders, not just Erdogan, were queuing for even "five minutes of handshaking" with Trump to resolve their issues.
Since returning to the office, Trump has repeatedly demonstrated his transactional approach. His May Gulf tour yielded "mega-deals" worth $600 billion with Saudi Arabia, $1.2 trillion with Qatar, and over $200 billion with the UAE. These packages went beyond defense contracts, guaranteeing business for giants like Boeing and Lockheed while ensuring billions in cash flow into the American financial system. South Korea ordered 103 Boeing aircraft worth approximately $50 billion, while Uzbekistan Airways signed an $8 billion deal for 22 Dreamliners.
Trump's expectations from Ankara are clear: concrete commitments that can be marketed domestically as "jobs and investment." The White House focuses on Boeing sales, civil aviation orders, and delivery schedules that won't strain U.S. defense stocks. Erdogan has already made gestures, lifting additional customs duties on American products from whiskey to automobiles imposed since 2018 as retaliation for Trump's tariffs on Turkish steel and aluminum.
Turkey's wishlist includes F-16 procurement and fleet modernization, with Trump's mention of F-35s suggesting this topic will also be discussed. Erdogan seeks recognition of Turkey's regional weight in Gaza and Syria, particularly Trump's support for strengthening Syria's central government. However, these expectations clash with Congressional red lines, requiring verifiable solutions on the S-400 missile system issue and a new framework regarding Hamas and Israel.
The fundamental challenge lies in Turkey's domestic politics. Deep-seated anti-American sentiment and extremely low approval ratings for Trump personally create a paradox. While Gulf monarchies can convert billion-dollar packages into domestic legitimacy, similar optics in Turkey generate tension. Erdogan's strategy can be characterized as "managed inconsistency" – condemning Gaza as "the world's largest children's cemetery" at the UN while negotiating defense deals with Israel's biggest supporter.
This delicate balance may secure Washington's silence on Ankara's policies while maintaining Turkey's room for maneuver. Still, it simultaneously creates vulnerabilities both domestically, among anti-American voters, and internationally, with the unpredictable Trump administration.
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