As Syria's interim government solidifies under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a high-stakes competition for influence is unfolding between Israel and Turkey, two regional powers with starkly divergent agendas. While Israel negotiates a U.S.-brokered security pact to contain threats along its northern border, Turkey is rapidly expanding its economic and security footprint through bilateral deals, setting the stage for a geopolitical showdown with implications for the volatile Middle East.
Israel's High-Wire Negotiations
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a high-level ministerial meeting on Sunday to finalize a security agreement with Syria, amid reported U.S. pressure to soften Jerusalem's demands. According to The Times of Israel, the pact—potentially announced at this week's UN General Assembly—aims to halt Israeli airstrikes and ground operations in Syria, which have exceeded 1,000 strikes and 400 incursions since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime last December.
Key sticking points include the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Syria's southern buffer zone and the protection of the country's Druze minority, a community with deep ties to Israel. Israel has insisted on retaining control of the strategically vital Mount Hermon, a position reinforced by Defense Minister Israel Katz, who called it a "central lesson" from the October 7 conflict. Syria, however, demands complete territorial integrity and a UN-monitored deal akin to the 1974 disengagement agreement.
A U.S. official, speaking anonymously to The Times of Israel, confirmed Washington is urging Israel to "compromise" to bridge gaps before the UN talks. Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, who met with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani in London last week, is expected to update Netanyahu's cabinet on Syria's counterproposals. While Syrian officials claim the deal is "pretty much ready," Israeli sources caution it "isn't ripe," citing Damascus's unreliability.
Turkey's Expanding Sphere of Influence
Concurrently, Turkey is cementing its role as Syria's primary economic and security partner, leveraging its historical ties to the new regime. In a flurry of agreements, Ankara and Damascus have enhanced security coordination, including intelligence sharing via Interpol and specialized training for Syrian security forces, as reported by Syria's state news agency SANA and analyzed by The Jerusalem Post.
Trade and transport ties are also accelerating. Syrian Transport Minister Yarub Badr met with the Turkish Freight Companies Union (UND) to streamline cargo movement through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing, a critical lifeline for goods entering Syria. UND noted that 400 trucks currently traverse the crossing daily. Additionally, Turkey delivered advanced navigation systems—including Instrument Landing System (ILS) and DVOR/DME technology—to Damascus International Airport, aiming to "enhance air transport safety" amid Syria's postwar reconstruction.
"Turkey is filling the void left by other powers," said Dr. Lina Khatib, director of the Middle East Institute at SOAS University. "While Israel focuses on military containment, Turkey is embedding itself economically and institutionally, ensuring long-term leverage regardless of who governs in Damascus."
The Shadow of Iran and Regional Rivalry
Israel's urgency in negotiating a pact stems from its goal of preventing Iran from using Syria as a launchpad for attacks. "We don't really believe this regime," an Israeli official admitted to Channel 12, "but a deal could prevent escalation." Yet Turkey's alignment with Syria complicates Israel's strategy. Ankara's support for Sunni factions once hostile to Assad has shifted to pragmatic cooperation, including joint efforts to stabilize southern Syria after July's sectarian violence in Sweida left over 2,000 dead.
The Druze question remains a flashpoint. Israel conducted airstrikes in Sweida to defend the minority, accusing Syrian forces of massacres. Now, as Reuters reports, Israel is covertly uniting Druze militias in the region, providing arms and salaries. Syria counters by appointing a Druze security chief in Sweida, signaling its intent to manage the crisis internally.
A Pivotal UN General Assembly
All eyes are now on the UN General Assembly in New York, where Sharaa will address world leaders on Wednesday—the first Syrian president to do so since 1967. Netanyahu seeks a potential meeting with Sharaa, though Israeli officials deem it unlikely. Meanwhile, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is expected to bolster his country's narrative as Syria's "stabilizing partner," contrasting with Israel's hardline stance.
The competition extends beyond immediate security: Israel eyes normalized ties with Arab states via the Abraham Accords, while Turkey pursues energy and trade dominance in a sanctions-battered Syria. As one Syrian official told The Times of Israel, "The future of Syria is being written in rival capitals."
Photo: Troops of the Israeli Air Force’s elite Shaldag unit are seen atop the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, in a photo published December 12, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces, Times of Israel)