Turkey finds itself in an increasingly challenging position after U.S. President Donald Trump's latest demand that NATO countries stop buying Russian oil, potentially threatening secondary tariffs against nations that continue importing Moscow's crude.
Ray Furlong from the RFE/RL's Hungarian Service underlines that among NATO's 31 members, only three countries – Turkey, Hungary, and Slovakia – currently import Russian oil. Turkey stands out as the most significant player, creating a complex diplomatic and economic dilemma for Ankara.
"According to our data, Turkey is the third largest Russian oil importer globally," Petras Kanitas, a Vilnius-based analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), told RFE/RL on September 15. The country's reliance on Russian oil stems from substantial economic incentives that will be difficult to abandon.
"Turkey buys Russian oil mainly because it's heavily discounted," Kanitas explained. "They also benefit by refining Russian crude oil and selling fuel products to Europe." This arrangement has become deeply embedded in Turkey's energy infrastructure, with some Turkish refineries sourcing up to 90 percent of their crude from Russia.
Trump's September 13 Truth Social post calling on "all NATO nations" to stop Russian oil imports marks a significant escalation in his approach to sanctions enforcement. The U.S. president has already announced secondary tariffs on India and has repeatedly threatened similar measures against other countries trading with Russia.
"Trump's threats so far have largely been directed at India and, to an extent, China. Turkey was never kind of in the mix. So, this is an interesting new development," said Benjamin Hilgenstock, senior economist at the Kyiv-based KSE Institute.
For Turkey, the challenge is multifaceted. Unlike EU members Hungary and Slovakia, which face pressure from Brussels to diversify away from Russian energy by 2027, Turkey operates outside the EU framework. This independence, while offering some diplomatic flexibility, also means Ankara cannot rely on EU support mechanisms for energy transition.
The economic implications for Turkey are substantial. Switching suppliers would not only require significant infrastructure adjustments but would also mean paying higher prices for alternative crude sources. Turkey is also a major importer of refined Russian oil products, adding another layer of complexity to any potential transition.
Turkey's position is further complicated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's efforts to maintain balanced relationships with both NATO allies and Russia. Turkey has positioned itself as a mediator in the Ukraine conflict while continuing significant economic ties with Moscow, including energy imports and tourism.
The timing of Trump's demand creates additional pressure. Turkey's economy has been struggling with high inflation and currency depreciation, making the prospect of more expensive energy imports particularly unwelcome. The discounted Russian oil has been one factor helping Turkey manage its energy costs during this economic turbulence.
Hilgenstock suggested that losing Turkish exports would create problems for Moscow, forcing Russia to offer "higher discounts to other buyers to redirect this volume." However, he acknowledged that ending imports "will be somewhat of a challenge" for Turkey.
The situation puts Turkey at a critical juncture. As Hilgenstock noted, resolving this issue "is really a conversation that Mr. Trump has to have with his friends Orban, Fico, and Erdogan." How Turkey navigates this challenge will test its diplomatic agility and could significantly impact both its NATO relationships and its energy security strategy.
Photo: Gemini AI