Turkey is pursuing an ambitious "Three-Layered Secure Basin Strategy" that blends modern statecraft with the historical legacies of its Seljuk and Ottoman predecessors to establish itself as a global power, according to a new analysis by the pro-government think tank SETA.
The report, published in its Kriter magazine, argues that Ankara's foreign policy is a contemporary revival of historical norms, operating across three distinct geopolitical spheres: an inner layer for immediate border security, a middle layer for influence in its historic heartlands, and an outer layer for global strategic projection.
This grand strategy, the authors contend, is built upon two foundational pillars: "internal balancing" through national unity and a powerful domestic defense industry, and the "responsibility of historical heritage" inherited from the Seljuk and Ottoman Empires.
The Foundation: A Strong Home Front
According to the SETA analysis, Turkey’s ability to project power abroad is critically dependent on its internal strength. The first pillar, national unity, is described as the consolidation of the state following the 2016 coup attempt and the success of cross-border counter-terrorism operations in Syria and Iraq. This internal cohesion provides the stability needed for a proactive foreign policy.
The second pillar is the nation’s burgeoning defense industry. The report highlights the development of indigenous military technology—such as the Bayraktar TB2 drones, the TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship, and the KAAN national combat aircraft—as a game-changer. This self-sufficiency has not only reduced dependency on foreign suppliers, as seen after the 1974 Cyprus arms embargo, but has also turned Turkey into a major military exporter and a more autonomous international actor.
A Strategy in Three Layers
The SETA report breaks down Turkey's foreign policy into three concentric circles of influence, each drawing on a different aspect of its imperial past.
1. The Inner Layer: Securing the Homeland
This immediate sphere covers the Caucasus, the Black Sea, and the northern Middle East. Policy here is guided by the Seljuk legacy of securing borders and controlling strategic trade corridors. Modern examples include Turkey's decisive military and technological support for Azerbaijan in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War, its push for the Zengezur Corridor to connect to Central Asia, and its proactive anti-terrorism operations in Syria and Iraq, which are framed as a modern version of the Seljuk "uç beyliği" (frontier principality) system. In the Black Sea, Turkey's role in mediating the Grain Corridor deal is presented as a contemporary application of its historical duty to ensure regional stability and trade.
2. The Middle Layer: Reviving Historical Heartlands
In the Balkans, the core Middle East, and Central Asia, Turkey leverages the Ottoman legacy of multicultural governance and cultural legitimacy. Its diplomacy focuses on restoring Ottoman-era heritage sites in the Balkans, conducting peacekeeping missions in Kosovo, and acting as a historical protector for Muslim communities. In the Middle East, recent normalization of ties with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, alongside a strong stance on the Gaza issue, are seen as reasserting its role as a key regional power and reflecting the Ottoman Caliphate's tradition of leadership in the Islamic world. In Central Asia, the Organization of Turkic States (OTS) institutionalizes Turkey's historical and cultural bonds, transforming shared heritage into a modern political and economic alliance.
3. The Outer Layer: Global Ambition
This layer encompasses Africa, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the global Turkish diaspora. Here, policy is driven by a fusion of Ottoman naval power and the Republic's modernization vision. The "Africa Opening" is highlighted by the establishment of Turkey's largest overseas military base in Somalia and the humanitarian and developmental work of agencies like TIKA and the Maarif Foundation, which mirror the Ottoman *vakıf* (foundation) system.
In the Eastern Mediterranean, the assertive "Mavi Vatan" (Blue Homeland) doctrine and the 2019 maritime agreement with Libya are portrayed as modern expressions of the Ottoman Empire's mission to protect sea lanes and project naval power. Finally, Turkey leverages its nearly six-million-strong diaspora and soft power assets like the global popularity of its television series to expand its cultural and political influence worldwide.
A New "Order-Setting Actor"?
The SETA analysis concludes that Turkey's three-layered strategy is a coherent and historically grounded approach to navigating a volatile international system. By successfully balancing its internal capacity with its historical legacy, the report argues, Turkey has the potential to transcend its status as a regional power and become a "global order-setting actor." The strategy’s sustainability, however, hinges on maintaining domestic stability and the continued growth of its independent defense capabilities.