According to analysis published by the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), Chinese experts warn that U.S. recognition of the breakaway region would amount to "opening Pandora's box" of African separatism and threaten continental stability. In a September 2025 report, CICIR researcher Zhu Wencheng argued that American support for Somaliland represents an attempt to "curb China's influence in Africa" and establish a "frontal fortress against China" in the strategic Horn of Africa region.
The controversy centers on Somaliland, a self-declared independent territory in northern Somalia that has never received international recognition since declaring independence in 1991. President Donald Trump recently told reporters he is "studying the issue" of recognition, a statement that has energized Somaliland's leadership and alarmed regional observers.
Somaliland has intensified lobbying efforts since Trump's return to office, offering significant concessions in exchange for U.S. recognition. "President" Abdirahman Mohammed Abdullahi told Bloomberg in July that his administration would provide access to Berbera Port and rare earth resources if Washington recognizes Somaliland's sovereignty. The territory's "Foreign Minister" even suggested openness to accepting Gaza refugees as part of a recognition deal.
The proposal has gained traction among U.S. politicians. Republican Representative Scott Perry reintroduced the "Somaliland Independence Act" in June, while Senator Ted Cruz, chairman of the Senate Committee on Africa and Global Health Policy, sent a letter to Trump arguing that Somaliland "has become an important security and diplomatic partner" whose recognition would "expand U.S. national security interests in the Horn of Africa."
American strategic interest in Somaliland centers on three key factors. First, the territory's location along the Red Sea-Gulf of Aden waterway—through which 30% of the world's tankers pass—offers critical military positioning. Berbera Port could complement the U.S. Camp Lemonnier base in Djibouti and support operations against terrorist groups and Yemen's Houthis.
Second, Washington views Somaliland as a counterweight to China's growing regional presence, particularly Beijing's logistics base in Djibouti. Third, the territory possesses largely undeveloped lithium and rare earth deposits that could reduce U.S. dependence on Chinese supply chains—a top priority for the Trump administration.
However, recognition could trigger severe regional instability. Somalia's federal government opposes any recognition of Somaliland, and such a move could embolden separatist movements across Africa, violating the African Union's foundational principle respecting colonial-era borders. The chaos could also disrupt Somalia's ongoing fight against Al-Shabaab and Islamic State militants.
Regional tensions nearly boiled over in January 2024 when Ethiopia sought Red Sea access by offering to recognize Somaliland, bringing Addis Ababa and Mogadishu to the brink of severed relations and alarming Egypt, Eritrea, and Djibouti.
Somaliland's Modern History
Somaliland was a British protectorate until 1960, when London orchestrated its merger with Italian Somalia to form the Somali Republic. Northern regions felt marginalized in the unified state, and the Barre regime's systematic suppression from 1969-1991 deepened resentment. When civil war erupted in 1991, Somaliland declared independence, but no country has recognized its sovereignty in the subsequent 34 years, leaving it in diplomatic limbo despite maintaining separate governance structures.
Photo: Gemini AI