In Madagascar, the elite CAPSAT military unit seized power on October 11, ousting President Andry Rajoelina’s government amid widespread protests over corruption and the failure to provide basic services. A regional security analyst told Zagazola.org that “the lack of a unified and firm response to coups has emboldened would-be coup leaders across the continent.” The military junta has announced a two-year transition period before holding elections, a move that has been met with international condemnation and has plunged the island nation into uncertainty. This coup adds Madagascar to a growing list of African nations under military rule, including Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Sudan, highlighting a troubling trend of democratic backsliding.
Simultaneously, Cameroon is grappling with the fallout from its October 12 presidential election, where 92-year-old President Paul Biya sought an eighth term. The main opposition has declared victory, citing alleged irregularities and intimidation, while the government has warned that any unofficial proclamation of results would be considered treason. The tense standoff underscores the deep-seated challenges to democratic processes in a nation already beset by conflict in its Anglophone regions.
The resurgence of military interventions and the erosion of democratic norms in Africa are not isolated phenomena. They represent a pattern of instability that resonates deeply in the Levant, a region historically susceptible to similar pressures. The modern history of the Levant is punctuated by military coups and political upheavals, often influenced by both internal and external factors. The 2013 military ouster of a democratically elected president in Egypt and the failed coup attempt in Turkey in 2016 serve as stark reminders of the fragility of political order in the region. These events demonstrate how quickly simmering discontent over governance, economic hardship, and security can boil over, leading to extra-constitutional changes in power.
For the Levant, the developments in Africa are a cautionary tale. The same ingredients fueling instability there—corruption, poor governance, economic distress, mainly class inequalities and the perceived failure of democratic institutions to deliver—are present in varying degrees across the Middle East. The main reasons of the rise of military juntas in Africa, if left unchecked, could normalize such actions globally, potentially emboldening anti-democratic forces in other regions. As external powers vie for influence in both Africa and the Levant, the lines of geopolitical competition can further exacerbate internal tensions. For instance, Russia's documented support for certain military regimes in Africa adds another layer of complexity, demonstrating how global rivalries can directly impact regional stability and the trajectory of governance. This external interference can embolden actors seeking to undermine democratic processes, creating a dangerous precedent for regions like the Levant. Therefore, the struggle for democracy and stability in Africa is not a distant issue for the Levant; it is a direct reflection of shared vulnerabilities and a potential harbinger of future challenges.
Photo: Euronews