Fourteen years after NATO intervened to topple Muammar Gaddafi’s regime, Libya remains unstable, deeply divided, and vulnerable to foreign interference. What was once a relatively stable North African nation has become a battleground where regional powers — often aided indirectly by global actors — compete for influence amid political chaos.
In his column in the Middle East Monitor, Dr Mustafa Fetouri writes that the 2011 intervention, launched by France before the United States assumed command, ended with Gaddafi’s overthrow after eight months of intense aerial bombardment. Yet NATO had no strategy for rebuilding the Libyan state, leaving a dangerous power vacuum. Promises of democracy and civilian protection went unfulfilled, and for much of the West, Libya has slipped down the priority list despite the devastating civilian toll.
Washington’s current policy — or lack thereof — has raised concerns among diplomats and analysts. Senior adviser on African and Middle Eastern affairs, Massad Boulos, has pledged U.S. support for the UN’s roadmap to unify Libya. But that backing remains conditional and inconsistent, according to U.S. representative to the UN Dorothy Shea, who has urged solutions that “reflect realities on the ground” without committing firm resources.
President Donald Trump, now months into his presidency, has yet to address Libya in any substantive way. His administration’s stance, reflected in Boulos’s own priorities, is transactional and tactical rather than principled or long-term. This absence has left the field open to regional powers willing to act decisively.
Turkey has emerged as perhaps the most influential foreign player in Libya, supporting the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) with military, political, and logistical assistance. Ankara’s forces — including Syrian mercenaries — operate openly, and President Erdoğan has positioned Turkey as a trusted mediator, most recently brokering a ceasefire between the GNU and the powerful Radaa militia. Notably, Turkey has even opened discreet channels with longtime adversary General Khalifa Haftar, reflecting its strategic adaptability in the Libyan theatre.
Haftar continues to dominate eastern and southern Libya, backed by the UAE, Egypt, and Russia. Abu Dhabi supplies drones and artillery; Cairo provides military advisers and training; and Moscow — via state-linked paramilitary forces — has reinforced Haftar’s campaigns, further entrenching divisions.
The United States’ sporadic engagement has done little to advance stability. The postponed December 2021 elections, touted by the UN as a pivotal step toward unity, collapsed amid political disputes. Former UN envoy Stephanie Williams and other critics argue that Libya’s divisions cannot be resolved without robust international consensus — something Washington has conspicuously failed to build.
Some observers contend that U.S. actions actively undermined Libya’s electoral process, with reports suggesting Washington opposed the possible victory of Gaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam. The perception that elections were manipulated or obstructed has only deepened the legitimacy crisis.
Meanwhile, the UN arms embargo on Libya, established in 2011, is routinely violated by multiple states. Washington has remained silent, signalling that accountability is selective at best.
For Trump, Libya appears to hold little political or personal importance. Even a lasting peace — should it emerge — would not align with his self-styled diplomatic legacy. Fourteen years on, Libya remains a casualty of foreign intervention, adrift in a geopolitical contest in which the United States has all but chosen not to compete.
Photo: Gemini AI