A fragile ceasefire in Gaza, after two years of devastating conflict, sees the international community, led by the United States, grappling with the immense task of disarming Hamas and establishing lasting stability. The path is fraught with challenges, as Hamas remains deeply entrenched, militarily and politically, while international stabilization efforts face significant hurdles.
Hamas's Enduring Grip and Disarmament Dilemmas
The disarmament of Hamas is central to any long-term peace plan. Since its 1987 founding, Hamas has viewed armed struggle against Israel as integral to its identity, a raison d'être analysts believe the group is unlikely to abandon readily (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor). Mousa Abu Marzouk, a senior member of Hamas's political office, stated that weapons would only be surrendered upon the establishment of a "sovereign Palestinian state" (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor).
Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer specializing in Palestinian issues, suggests that while Hamas will "never, never, never announce in a clear manner that they are ready to give up the weapons," they might be open to a compromise (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor). This could involve surrendering "offensive" weapons like rockets and drones, while retaining "defensive" arms such as rifles and grenades (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor). Diaa Rashwan, head of Egypt’s State Information Service, noted Hamas accepted an arms "freeze" as part of the Trump framework (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor). However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's willingness to accept such partial disarmament remains a significant obstacle, according to Milshtein (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor).
President Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized Hamas's disarmament, even threatening US intervention to "go in and kill them" if the group does not voluntarily discard its weapons (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor; Szuba, Al-Monitor). Despite these strong statements, US military officials clarified there would be no American ground troops in Gaza, with 200 troops in Israel supporting and monitoring the ceasefire (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor).
Experts like Erik Skare, a senior researcher on Palestinian militancy, note Hamas retains a significant stockpile of small arms, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and repurposed Israeli munitions, even after two years of Israeli military operations (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor). The group's vast tunnel network, used for stashing hostages and smuggling weapons, also poses a persistent challenge. Daphne Richemond-Barak, a professor at Israel's Reichman University and author of "Underground Warfare," estimates that while a third or more of Hamas's tunnels were destroyed, only the Israeli military possesses the expertise to dismantle the remainder (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor).
Skare outlines three potential scenarios for Hamas's future: full disarmament into a legal political party; "a formal disarmament but not a de facto one," involving retaining weapons while temporarily ceasing armed activity; or, most likely, Hamas returning to its roots as a clandestine armed militia, exercising informal power in Palestinian streets as it did before 2007 (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor).
International Stabilization Efforts and Mounting Tensions
Amidst disarmament challenges, US Central Command is establishing a civil-military coordination center in Tel Aviv to oversee and sustain the Gaza ceasefire (Szuba, Al-Monitor). This involves discussions with Indonesia and Azerbaijan to contribute military personnel for an international stabilization force, which would train a local Palestinian police force (Szuba, Al-Monitor). Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are also expected to support this effort with trainers or funding (Szuba, Al-Monitor). The force's primary task will be to "protect people of Gaza and vital infrastructure" and to "vet and train a local Gaza police force," allowing the IDF to gradually withdraw (US defense official cited by Szuba, Al-Monitor).
However, the transition period is marked by significant instability. Hamas has exploited the ceasefire to eliminate rivals within Gaza, including those accused of collaborating with Israel (Szuba, Al-Monitor). These actions drew strong condemnation from President Trump and Navy Adm. Brad Cooper (Szuba, Al-Monitor). Trump's 20-point peace plan explicitly demands Hamas's disarmament and relinquishment of any governance role, threatening resumed Israeli military action if conditions are not met (Szuba, Al-Monitor). Yet, Trump himself acknowledged giving Hamas "approval for a period of time" to emerge in Gaza, a window that allowed the group to consolidate power (Szuba, Al-Monitor).
The recent violence complicates securing international contributions to the stabilization force, with no Arab states publicly committing troops (Szuba, Al-Monitor). The UN estimates Gaza is covered in 60 million tons of rubble, exacerbating humanitarian and reconstruction challenges (Szuba, Al-Monitor). France and the UK are working with the US on a UN Security Council resolution to legitimize the international force's mission (Szuba, Al-Monitor).
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and the Quest for Stability
The path to a stable, demilitarized Gaza is complex and uncertain. The Trump administration explores creating "Hamas-free zones" behind the IDF's Yellow Line, with reconstruction funds directed only to these areas (US senior adviser cited by Szuba, Al-Monitor). The stalled opening of the Rafah border crossing, due to Israeli objections over Hamas's failure to return all hostage remains, underscores ongoing tensions (Szuba, Al-Monitor).
As the international community navigates this complex landscape, Michael Milshtein's assertion that Hamas is sending a clear message — "We are the boss" (Hagedorn, Al-Monitor) — resonates deeply, highlighting the formidable challenge of achieving a truly demilitarized and stable Gaza.
Photo: Gemini AI
References
• Hagedorn, Elizabeth. "What will it take to disarm Hamas?" Al-Monitor, 16 Oct. 2025.
• Szuba, Jared. "US CENTCOM hastens to rally international force to stabilize Gaza." Al-Monitor, 16 Oct. 2025.