This heightened pressure underscores a reality often overlooked by international policymakers focused on Tehran's nuclear ambitions or a monolithic opposition. According to a recent analysis by David Sklar for the Atlantic Council, titled “Iran’s minorities and policy complexity: A look at two communities,” a nuanced understanding of the country's diverse and often competing ethnic groups is critical. The report argues that conflicts, like the recent exchange with Israel, have had dire, unintended consequences for these marginalized populations, providing the regime with a pretext to intensify human rights abuses under the guise of national security.
The Kurdish-majority region of Rojhelat, the birthplace of the "Jin, Jiyan, Azadi" (Woman, Life, Freedom) movement, has seen a significant influx of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces. Activists report that the regime used the conflict as cover to imprison protestors and suppress any potential uprising. The Oslo-based Hengaw organization documented a spike in Kurdish arrests and executions following the hostilities. Kurdish leaders express frustration not only with the regime but also with Persian-dominated diaspora opposition groups, who they say prioritize a "unified Iran" over acknowledging the specific, systemic violence faced by Kurds. "Without recognizing the Kurdish people’s right to meaningful autonomy... calls for territorial integrity will be seen as a tool of domination rather than unity," stated Kurdish-American attorney Samira Ghaderi.
Similarly, in the southeastern province of Balochistan, the Iran-Israel conflict is seen as the regime's fight, not theirs. Prominent Balochi activist Rahim Bandoui claims Tehran uses external conflicts as an "excuse to attack or kill." This was tragically illustrated on July 1, when security forces stormed the village of Gunich, ostensibly to find Israeli agents, killing at least two women in the process. For the Balochi people, who have a long history of marginalization and are often denied government identification, this is a continuation of state policy. They view the regime’s military posturing as a drain on national wealth that could be used for development, while they endure extrajudicial killings and a daily fight for survival, far removed from the anti-hijab protests in Tehran.
As both Kurdish and Balochi communities express deep skepticism toward a potential restoration of the Pahlavi monarchy, viewing it as another form of centralized repression, they are calling for federalism and decentralization. Their plight serves as a stark warning to Western policymakers that any strategy for engaging with Iran—whether through diplomacy or pressure—must account for the complex internal fabric of the nation, where for many, the greatest threat is not an external foe, but the government in Tehran.
Photo: Mehr