Extremist group capitalizes on post-Assad chaos, weak border security, and alleged Israeli complicity to rebuild presence across southern provinces
Nearly one year after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, the Islamic State is staging a calculated resurgence across Syria, exploiting security vacuums and regional instability to reclaim territory and operational capacity. A grisly execution video released in mid-September, showing the killing of a General Security member near the town of Nahta in Daraa countryside, served as a chilling announcement of ISIS's return to areas where it had been largely dormant since December 2024.
According to analysis published by The Syrian Observer, the extremist organization has claimed responsibility for multiple high-profile attacks in recent months, including the devastating bombing of St. Elias Church in Damascus on June 22, a car bomb targeting security installations in Deir-ez-Zor on May 18, and an attempted strike near the Sayyida Zainab shrine. Syrian Interior Ministry statements confirming repeated arrests of ISIS operatives further underscore the group's expanding footprint.
Military and strategic analyst Mahmoud Abdelsalam notes that ISIS has taken advantage of the security vacuum following the regime's collapse to reposition itself across several provinces. The chaotic transition created ideal conditions for dormant cells to reconnect and coordinate operations, particularly as weapons flooded into civilian hands after army units abandoned their bases across the country.
Southern Strategy and Israeli Connection
The group's re-emergence in southern Syria appears particularly deliberate. Analysts point to ISIS's intimate knowledge of the Yarmouk Basin terrain, where it maintained a stronghold for years before the regime change. However, more concerning are allegations of indirect Israeli facilitation. According to Abdelsalam, Israel's enforcement of demilitarized zones in the border region has paradoxically provided ISIS with greater freedom of movement, creating geographic corridors that operate under what he describes as an "Israeli security umbrella."
Political researcher Mohammad Abu Sharifa identifies weak security deployment as a critical vulnerability. These "soft security flanks" in southern Syria offer ideal infiltration routes for an organization actively hostile to Damascus's new administration. ISIS has strategically exploited ongoing security negotiations between Syria and Israel regarding demilitarized southern zones, taking advantage of restrictions on Syrian military movements.
In Suweida province, the group has inserted itself into existing local security chaos, committing atrocities that further destabilize the region and complicate governance efforts. The extremist organization is reportedly working to rebuild what it calls the "Horan Emirate," recruiting economically desperate youth while exploiting ideological divisions among Defense Ministry-affiliated factions.
Geographic Expansion and Future Threats
Abu Sharifa observes that ISIS is systematically strengthening its presence across a geographic arc stretching from the Syrian Desert through the Suweida steppe into deeper southern territories. Recent upticks in the group's online propaganda activity focusing on southern Syria suggest a coordinated expansion campaign rather than opportunistic violence.
Analysts warn that failure to address this resurgence could transform southern Syria into what Abu Sharifa calls "a factory for exporting terrorists" — a training ground that would violate Syria's international counterterrorism obligations while eroding social cohesion and civil peace. Such developments would severely hamper Damascus's attempts to rebuild international legitimacy and relationships.
Abdelsalam advocates for comprehensive countermeasures, including targeting ISIS supply lines in the Syrian Desert, enhanced surveillance operations across all provinces, and community-based programs to counter extremist recruitment among vulnerable youth populations. Without decisive action, experts caution, ISIS's Syrian comeback may prove more enduring than its initial defeat.