Israel and the Dream of "Absolute Victory". Between Netanyahu's Myth and the Reality of American Hegemony*
Luay Sawalha, Palestinian writer and journalist
For decades, Israel has entrenched the concept of "absolute victory" within its collective consciousness as a symbol of its strength and continuity. From Ben-Gurion to Netanyahu, this myth has served as a political and military tool to justify aggression and a means to rally public opinion around a single goal: superiority and control. However, the events that erupted on October 7, 2023, and continued for two years, revealed the fragility of this narrative in the face of a new political, military, legal, and social reality, where Tel Aviv is no longer a dominant party but rather a recipient of decisions imposed upon it by an external power, the United States of America, while Palestinian resistance has asserted itself on the ground and achieved significant symbolic victories.
The Collapse of the Israeli Narrative
In a recent video address, Netanyahu attempted to promote the idea that the ongoing military pressure on Gaza forced Hamas to accept the deal initially. He repeated that he was on the "verge of a great victory," avoiding the term "absolute victory" that had formed the core of his narrative throughout the war. This attempt, despite its media fanfare, faced widespread refutation from prominent Israeli analysts, such as Nahum Barnea and Ben Caspit. Major newspapers confirmed that the reality is entirely different: Trump is the one who imposed the ceasefire, and Hamas was not defeated by military force but partially triumphed by imposing conditions on Israel itself.
Ronen Bergman pointed out that Netanyahu's statements might push Hamas to harden its stance, while former National Security Advisor Giora Eiland emphasized that "negotiations are not technical, and Hamas will present difficult demands," indicating the limited capacity of Israel to impose its will on the ground. Here arises the central question: Is Israel a truly sovereign state or a entity under American hegemony?
The Political Dimension: American Dependency
For the first time since its establishment, Israel finds itself facing a political reality in which military and political power is no longer entirely in its hands. Trump, through his decisions, halted the war, imposed a prisoner exchange agenda, defined withdrawal lines, and initiated a negotiation phase outside the framework of "negotiations under fire." All of this occurred without consulting Tel Aviv, revealing an unprecedented state of political dependency.
This American hegemony has left Israel with two options: accept the deal or face increasing international isolation, amid a global community that has begun to reassess its stance on its policies in Gaza and the West Bank. This phase raises questions about the extent of Israeli political decision-making independence, which has not been so clearly evident before.
The Legal Dimension: Sovereignty and Legitimacy
Legally, this reality raises profound questions about the concept of sovereignty. Issuing a ceasefire decision from an external power, without consulting the Israeli government, constitutes an implicit violation of the principle of independence. Additionally, imposing conditions on prisoner exchanges and withdrawals places Tel Aviv in a double bind: adhering to strict American conditions on one hand, and eroding its international credibility on the other.
Moreover, there is international legitimacy, as Israel faces global pressure due to the massacres in Gaza and violations of international humanitarian law. This point underscores that military victory alone is no longer a measure of sovereignty and the ability to make decisions.
The Military Dimension: Limits of Israeli Power
After two years of bombing and military operations, Israel has failed to achieve its strategic objectives: Hamas has not been defeated, not all Israeli prisoners have been recovered by force, and no new deterrence has been imposed on the resistance. On the contrary, the capabilities of the resistance have continued to deepen, partially imposing its conditions at the negotiating table.
This failure has reflected on the Israeli military establishment, where analysts have pointed out that "absolute victory" has not been achieved, and the American deal represents an attempt to salvage what can be salvaged from limited gains, rather than achieving a strategic victory.
The Social and Psychological Dimension: Cracking of Israeli Society
The Israeli society is experiencing an unprecedented identity crisis. Internal divisions between the right and left, religious and secular, settlers and urban residents have reached critical levels. The shocks of October 2023 and the years of war have affected trust in the state and the army, especially among the youth, creating a sense of collective frustration.
Recent opinion polls indicate a significant decline in public trust in leadership, an increase in reverse immigration, and a growing deep social anxiety. This reality reflects that military victory is no longer capable of uniting society, and that symbolic defeat in the collective consciousness has become more impactful than battlefield defeat.
The Palestinian Dimension: Prisoners and Resistance
On the Palestinian side, the release of hundreds of prisoners, including 250 serving life sentences, represents a tremendous symbolic moment for the resistance. The raising of victory signs during their release reflects the Palestinians.
* The article was first published in the Al Quds, on October 5th, 2025. It has been translated from Arabic to English with the kind support of the Levant Files team members. The Levant Files does not share all the arguments that have been expressed in the republished articles. We share the article due to the ongoing historical developments in the region.
Photo: Gemini AI