This skepticism is rooted in the prime minister's past actions, with a recent analysis in Haaretz by Amos Harel, positing that the Israeli leader will likely revert to his "old tactics." These tactics could include launching protracted negotiations over the deal’s fine print and leveraging vocal objections from his far-right coalition partners to signal to Hamas that Israel cannot be trusted to honor its commitments, thereby ensuring the plan’s failure while avoiding direct blame.
The framework proposed by President Trump calls for a phased Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, leaving only a narrow buffer zone. In return, Hamas would release all remaining hostages, both living and deceased, within 72 hours of the agreement’s signing. The plan also includes a significant prisoner exchange, with Israel set to release 250 high-profile Palestinian security prisoners. Governance of the post-war strip would then be handed to an interim Arab body, with the Palestinian Authority playing only a symbolic role.
Despite heavy pressure from Egypt and Qatar, significant hurdles remain. Hamas has yet to formally agree to the deal, reportedly wary of basing a complete surrender of hostages on Trump's promises to enforce a phased Israeli withdrawal. Critics have noted the plan’s vague timelines and lack of conclusive details on Hamas's future status, with observers pointing out that its implementation depends entirely on overcoming fierce resistance from hardliners on both sides who hold key positions of power.
Compounding the diplomatic fragility is an imminent external threat that could derail the entire process. A new pro-Palestinian flotilla of over 35 vessels is approaching the Gazan coast, an event the Israeli military has termed a "legitimization ambush" designed to capture international media attention. The IDF is on high alert, preparing for a delicate interception to avoid a violent confrontation reminiscent of the deadly 2010 Mavi Marmara incident. A tactical error at sea could ignite regional tensions and provide political cover for those seeking to scuttle the cease-fire effort, leaving the fragile peace process dead in the water.
Photo: Gemini AI