The most immediate flashpoint is in Aleppo province, where Damascus-affiliated armed groups are massing near Kurdish-majority areas. Citing the news outlet Rudaw, a local official, Nouri Sheikho, warned that "the situation in these areas has been deteriorating for over a month." He described a significant military build-up, including "the establishment of new checkpoints, watchposts, and roadblocks," which is spreading fear of an imminent "open conflict" among the local population. Sheikho specifically identified fighters from the sanctioned al-Amshat and Hamza divisions. These two hardline factions have resisted integration into the new state military, as they have been deployed near the Kurdish neighborhoods of Sheikh Maqsood and Ashrafiyeh.
This military pressure appears aimed at forcing the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to capitulate on the terms of a stalled integration agreement. A March accord was meant to merge all civil and military institutions under the Syrian state, but disagreements persist. While the SDF seeks to join the national army as a unified entity, Damascus insists on integrating fighters individually. In a move seen as a tactic to strong-arm the SDF, armed groups have blocked key roads, such as the Deir Hafer route, effectively cutting lifelines and doubling travel times between Kurdish-held territories.
These tensions in the north are not an isolated incident. The new transitional government, led by former rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, is struggling to contain sectarian strife across the country. In March, clashes between security forces and former regime loyalists resulted in the deaths of nearly 900 civilians, primarily from the Alawite minority. More recently, in early May, over 100 people were killed in fighting between Druze gunmen and new security forces near Damascus and in the southern province of Suweida, highlighting the deep-seated distrust between Syria's diverse communities.
The deteriorating security situation has prompted grave warnings from international observers. Despite recent decisions by the United States and the European Union to lift long-standing sanctions in an effort to support the new authorities and facilitate humanitarian aid, the outlook remains bleak. In a stark assessment, a short while ago, the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Syria could be just "weeks, not many months, away from potential collapse and a full-scale civil war of epic proportions."