The analysis, published by Ekrem Berekat of the Kurdistan Strategic Studies Center, documents how the Damascus provisional government has not only ignored the March 10 Agreement but is actively sabotaging its provisions, threatening the country's unity and deepening political-social divisions.
Recent Escalations Belie Claims of Peace
Recent weeks have witnessed a series of escalatory events, including the provisional Damascus government cutting connection routes between North and East Syria and other regions. Turkish-backed groups loyal to the provisional government subsequently besieged the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah neighborhoods in Aleppo, followed by attacks on Deir Hafir.
Amid this escalation, US Special Envoy for Syria Tom Barrack and CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper visited Hasaka, meeting with representatives of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Women's Protection Units (YPJ), and the Democratic Autonomous Administration. Hours after the visit, provisional government-affiliated groups attempted to enter Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyah neighborhoods but were repelled by Internal Security Forces and local residents.
On October 7, an Autonomous Administration delegation met with provisional Damascus government representatives under US mediation. This was followed on October 8 by Damascus Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani's visit to Turkey to brief Ankara on the discussions. Significantly, Shaibani declared that "the March 10 Agreement remains on paper for now."
Systematic Violations of Peace Agreement
The Lekolin analysis details six major violations of the March 10 Agreement, which was signed at a critical juncture in Syrian history as a genuine attempt to rebuild the nation on foundations of justice and citizenship after years of war and division:
Article 1 - Political Participation: The provisional government violated guarantees of merit-based political participation for all Syrians regardless of religion or ethnicity. Two days after signing the agreement, Damascus issued a "Constitutional Declaration" that contradicted equality principles and subordinated political decisions to single-group dominance.
Article 2 - Kurdish Recognition: Despite provisions recognizing the Kurdish community as an integral part of the Syrian state, Presidential Decree No. 188 issued October 5 reflects a denial of Kurdish identity.
Article 3 - Ceasefire: The provisional government has not stopped attacks on North and East Syria. The September 20 massacre in Um al-Tina village in Deir Hafir district, which killed eight civilians, and ongoing attacks on Ashrafiyah and Sheikh Maqsoud neighborhoods exemplify continued violations.
Article 4 - Return of Displaced: Due to Turkish pressure, the provisional government has no clear plan for the return of those displaced from Afrin, Tal Abyad, and Ras al-Ain, deepening humanitarian tragedy.
Article 5 - Rejection of Divisive Rhetoric: Blockade policies and road closures feed hate speech and cement geographical division, both by cutting routes between North-East Syria and other regions and by besieging areas like Sweida.
Article 6 - Executive Committees: Despite the Autonomous Administration declaring its readiness, the provisional government has taken no steps to activate executive committees, revealing absence of political will.
Call for Civil National Front
The analysis argues that undermining the March 10 Agreement reflects not just violation of negotiated terms but a political tendency that reproduces division and threatens the idea of a united Syria.
"What is needed today is not only to expose these policies but also to form a civil national front that will implement the agreement and revalue the principles of justice, citizenship and pluralism as the only foundation for building a stable future for Syria," Berekat writes.
The analysis emphasizes that international actors who sponsored the agreement must assume responsibility for ensuring implementation rather than settling for symbolic statements, as the agreement represents "a real test of the parties' seriousness about building a common Syrian future."
The document concludes that "the Syria that Syrians dreamed of in the early moments of the revolution is still possible, but it requires political will and an organized civil movement that will revalue the idea of homeland as a space of justice, not a field of conflict."
The revelations cast doubt on recent claims of successful US mediation and suggest the conflict between Damascus and Kurdish-held areas remains active and unresolved despite diplomatic efforts.
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