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TLF Special: Turkey, Qatar and Egypt Forge Alliance for Post-War Gaza Governance

In a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, former rivals Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar are reportedly joining forces to shape the future of Gaza following the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas. This unprecedented collaboration, backed by a US-sponsored peace plan, aims to establish a new governance structure, oversee reconstruction, and facilitate the disarmament of Hamas, marking a complex and delicate path toward regional stability.

Egypt: The Indispensable Mediator and Reconstruction Hub

Egypt has emerged as a pivotal player, leveraging its geographical proximity and historical ties to Gaza. Its role is multifaceted, encompassing critical mediation efforts and a leading position in the impending reconstruction. Cairo has successfully positioned itself as the primary mediator in ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas, a move that has not only reasserted its diplomatic influence but also attracted substantial international aid and financial backing. Furthermore, with its extensive experience in large-scale infrastructure projects, Egypt is poised to spearhead the physical rebuilding of Gaza, with an eye on securing lucrative contracts for its national construction firms, funded by global donors. This strategic engagement, however, requires a careful balancing act to ensure its efforts are perceived as genuine support for the Palestinian population rather than an extension of Israeli interests.

Qatar: The Crucial Channel to Hamas

Qatar’s involvement is defined by its unique and indispensable role as a direct interlocutor with Hamas. For years, Doha has hosted the political leadership of Hamas, a arrangement facilitated by the United States. This enduring connection has made Qatar an essential conduit in all negotiations and peace processes concerning Gaza. The Gulf state has steadfastly resisted international pressure to expel Hamas leadership, arguing that such a move would dismantle its critical leverage and undermine its capacity to contribute to a peaceful resolution. Qatar’s ability to maintain strong ties with both Hamas and the United States, a key non-NATO ally, positions it as a vital bridge between Western powers and the Palestinian militant group, crucial for the ongoing peace initiatives.

Turkey: A Resurgent Force in a Fragile Region

Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has re-established itself as a significant regional actor, actively engaging in the post-war planning for Gaza. Its participation alongside Egypt and Qatar as a key supporter of the US-backed peace plan signals a notable departure from past rivalries and highlights its renewed influence in the Middle East. Ankara’s involvement is further bolstered by the backing of the United States, which views Turkey as an essential partner in fostering regional stability and implementing the proposed post-war framework for Gaza.

The Broader Context: Conditional Support and the Path Ahead

The collective involvement of Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar is integral to a broader, US-backed peace initiative for Gaza. The success of this ambitious plan, however, is contingent upon several critical factors. A primary condition, articulated by other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is the complete disarmament of Hamas. These nations have explicitly stated their reluctance to contribute to Gaza’s reconstruction as long as Hamas retains its military capabilities. The scale of reconstruction required is immense, with estimates running into tens of billions of dollars, making sustained international funding absolutely crucial. Ultimately, the plan envisions the establishment of a new interim government in Gaza to oversee both reconstruction and disarmament. The formation and legitimacy of this governing body will undoubtedly be a central point of negotiation among all involved regional and international stakeholders, determining the long-term viability of peace in the war-torn strip.

Photo: Gemini AI