Turkey's struggling economy continues to be the weakest flank of the ruling AK Party government, according to recent polling data that paints an increasingly bleak picture of voter sentiment. According to analysis published in the Yetkin Report by political analyst Ahmet Erdi Öztürk, inflation pressures and cost-of-living crises are cementing the economy as the government's most vulnerable political liability.
September's inflation figures pointed to acceleration that cannot be explained solely by seasonal effects, with persistent stickiness in food and services, currency pass-through effects, and adjustments in public prices and taxes squeezing household budgets harder than ever. While nominal wage increases continue, purchasing power erosion deepens, with expectations showing clear signs of "de-anchoring," the report noted.
Research Istanbul's Turkey Report, prepared for subscribers between October 1-3, reveals a dark economic tableau. Negative assessments of the current economy increased by 2 percentage points from the previous month, with 73% of voters describing conditions as "very bad/bad." The burden falls hardest on food and housing sectors, where month-end budgeting has transformed into weekly "emergency" financial planning. Rent renewals, energy bills, and school expenses are particularly crushing middle-class and fixed-income households in major cities, forcing renters to essentially choose between food and shelter.
As minimum credit card payments and installment deferrals become widespread, financial fragility grows and the real-time impact of price increases intensifies. The polarization between voters has hardened into a lasting divide: while opposition party supporters maintain 91-95% negative economic assessments, pessimism within the ruling Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) has notably surged, with a 22-point gap emerging between AKP and MHP voters' economic outlooks.
Looking ahead, economic pessimism varies sharply across employment groups. Students lead in expecting conditions to become "much worse" within the next year at 42%, reflecting younger generations' anxieties about inflation, housing, and employment prospects. Civil servants show relatively more optimism at 28%, benefiting from regular income and job security.
The survey reveals a psychological cascade: 82% of those rating today's economy as "very bad" expect the future to be "worse/much worse," while only 6% of those viewing current conditions as "good" share that pessimism. This demonstrates how current perceptions seal expectations for tomorrow.
Gender differences are pronounced. Men report income shortfalls 6 percentage points higher than women, while women are 5 points more likely to describe themselves as "barely getting by." Across all age groups, those unable to meet expenses represent the majority. Day laborers face the harshest reality, with 76% reporting insufficient income, while even among employers only 13% report income "more than adequate."
The findings underscore a fundamental political reality: the government's political performance remains anchored to economic conditions. While foreign policy initiatives like Gaza activism may briefly dominate headlines, and pressure campaigns against opposition parties may heat up debates, voter decisions are permanently shaped by "the fire in the kitchen," Öztürk writes.
As food, rent, and energy inflation erode purchasing power and push households toward barely surviving on debt, the legitimacy of politics is once again being measured by the wallet. The conclusion is clear: without extinguishing the kitchen fires, agenda engineering cannot permanently transform voting behavior. Turkey's economy remains the government's Achilles' tendon.
Photo: Gemini AI