As Israel marks the second anniversary of the October 7 Hamas massacre, a dramatically transformed Middle East landscape has emerged, with Turkey ascending as a key regional power while Iran's influence wanes and Israel faces new diplomatic challenges despite military victories.
According to Al Monitor, Israel is confronting "new sets of threats and challenges as Turkey takes an active role in both Gaza and Syria," with Turkish involvement simultaneously worrying Israeli security officials while raising hopes that Ankara could pressure Hamas to accept President Donald Trump's ceasefire proposal.
The two-year conflict has fundamentally altered regional power dynamics. Israel's retaliatory military campaign has severely weakened Hamas and Hezbollah, eliminating their leaders and destroying significant portions of their arsenals. The offensive also damaged Iran's nuclear facilities and ballistic missile stockpiles, effectively dismantling what was known as the Iranian-led "ring of fire" of proxy forces surrounding Israel.
However, these strategic gains have come at an enormous price. Tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Gaza and widespread destruction have severely damaged Israel's international standing. Many European countries, among Israel's most important trading partners, are now threatening boycotts similar to those imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. For much of the world, images of devastation from Gaza have overshadowed memories of the initial Hamas attack.
In the resulting power vacuum, influence has shifted toward a U.S.-backed coalition of Arab and Muslim nations, including Turkey, Qatar, and Syria. "Turkey is the armed and powerful version of Qatar," a senior Israeli security source told Al Monitor anonymously. "Whereas Qatar is boosting its influence through money and economic power, Turkey is now expanding its clout throughout the Middle East through its military power, as well as through the creativity and determination of Erdogan and Fidan."
Israel views this new alignment with cautious optimism. Unlike Iran's proxy network, these powers don't threaten Israel's existence, and some maintain trade and diplomatic ties with the Jewish state. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, despite being a vocal critic of Israel, enjoys a strong relationship with President Trump, which Israeli officials hope to leverage.
Signs of potential détente are emerging. Turkish Airlines recently allowed a flight to land in Israel for the first time in two years, sparking speculation about the restoration of commercial service. Israeli security circles view Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, Erdogan's potential successor, as more pragmatic than the current president.
Yet concerns remain about Syria becoming a Turkish proxy state along Israel's border, potentially replacing Iran as a forward threat. Israeli officials also worry about Trump's reported willingness to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, which could erode Israel's military edge.
Currently, Israel hopes Turkey and Qatar can help resolve the Gaza stalemate. Trump has reportedly asked both nations to pressure Hamas into accepting his peace plan. Indirect negotiations in Egypt's Sharm al-Sheikh are focusing on prisoner exchanges and Israeli military withdrawal, though significant gaps remain between the parties.
In a remarkable development, families of Israeli hostages have urged the Norwegian Nobel Committee to award this year's Peace Prize to Trump for his mediation efforts. The committee's decision is expected on Friday, as subdued memorial ceremonies mark this somber anniversary across Israel.