Turkey, officially known as Türkiye, stands at a critical geopolitical juncture, embodying the characteristics of a global swing state. Its strategic location, bridging Europe and Asia, coupled with its complex foreign policy and domestic dynamics, positions it as a significant player in an increasingly multipolar world. The nation's foreign relations are a delicate balance of alliances and independent actions, often navigating between traditional Western partnerships and burgeoning ties with Eastern powers. This intricate dance underscores Turkey's ambition to maximize its advantages amidst intensifying great-power competition.
According to the Congressional Research Service report, "Turkey (Türkiye): Major Issues and U.S. Relations," updated September 15, 2025, Turkey, alongside other nations like Saudi Arabia and India, actively seeks to leverage its position in a global system marked by heightened geopolitical rivalry. While its membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) remains a cornerstone of its security framework and the European Union (EU) serves as its primary trading partner and foreign investor, Turkey has also reportedly expressed interest in joining the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, the People’s Republic of China [PRC], South Africa) and the PRC- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This dual approach highlights Turkey's pragmatic foreign policy, aiming to diversify its strategic partnerships and enhance its influence on the global stage.
The past decade has seen significant divergences between the United States and Turkey, particularly concerning the U.S. partnership with Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) against the Islamic State organization, and Turkey’s 2019 acquisition of the Russian S-400 surface-to-air defense system. These issues led to U.S. sanctions and the suspension of F-35 fighter aircraft sales to Turkey. However, recent developments, including joint efforts to strengthen NATO and support Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion, and cooperation with a new, generally pro-Turkish, Sunni Arab-led interim government in Syria after the 2024 fall of Bashar Al Asad, suggest a potential easing of these tensions. The prospect of F-35 sales, contingent on the S-400 system being rendered inoperable, remains a key point of discussion, reflecting the ongoing complexities in U.S.-Turkey defense relations.
Syria continues to be a focal point of Turkey's regional influence. The May 2025 decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to end its armed struggle against the Turkish government could potentially resolve long-standing disagreements with the PKK-linked SDF. Turkey is arguably the most influential foreign power in Syria today, actively shaping the transitional government's efforts in military integration, extending governmental authority, and managing sectarian conflicts. Both Turkey and Syria’s interim government oppose Kurdish autonomy, further complicating the regional landscape. Concurrently, Turkey-Israel tensions have escalated, fueled by their competing interests in Syria, Turkey’s continued support for Hamas after the October 2023 attacks, Israel’s conduct in the Gaza war, and Turkey’s suspension of trade with Israel. These dynamics underscore Turkey's assertive role in regional affairs, often challenging established alliances and creating new geopolitical alignments.
Beyond the Middle East, Turkey's foreign policy extends to its economic and energy cooperation with Russia, and its historical tensions with Greece and the Republic of Cyprus. While these areas present ongoing challenges, there are also instances of alignment, such as assisting with an Azerbaijan-Armenia peace process, which could lead to normalized Turkey-Armenia relations. This multifaceted engagement demonstrates Turkey's willingness to pursue independent foreign policy objectives, even when they diverge from the interests of its traditional allies.
Domestically, Turkey faces significant political and economic challenges that invariably impact its international standing. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's consolidation of power over two decades, culminating in strong actions against the main opposition Republican People’s Party in 2025, including the imprisonment of Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, raises concerns about democratic backsliding. Economically, despite some improvements, Turkey grapples with high inflation, exceeding 30%, which is significantly higher than other OECD countries. These internal pressures contribute to the perception of Turkey as a complex and sometimes unpredictable actor on the global stage, further solidifying its status as a swing state whose trajectory can significantly influence regional and international dynamics.
Analysts continue to debate the implications of Turkey's swing state behavior. Some argue that the strategic and economic advantages of a U.S. partnership with Turkey warrant greater engagement, while others contend that Turkey’s hedging strategies, regional policies, and domestic controversies necessitate caution from U.S. policymakers. This ongoing discussion highlights the critical importance of understanding Turkey's evolving role as a nation that, by virtue of its unique position and assertive foreign policy, can sway the balance of power in various geopolitical contexts.
Photo: T24