Al Joumhouria (Lebanon): Lebanon and Cyprus Sign Maritime Border Agreement; Egypt Attempts De-escalation Amidst Warnings of Pressure*

The General Scene

The general landscape is as follows: The Lebanese state is attempting to knock on all external doors in pursuit of a political solution to halt the Israeli aggression. However, the movements and initiatives aimed at achieving this end are revolving in a vicious cycle—or rather, a dead end.

The situation is being pulled in opposing directions. On one side, there is Israel’s deliberate ignition of escalation sparks, its complete violation of Lebanese airspace, and its escalating threats—the latest being the Defense Minister’s threat to "operate again with force in Lebanon if Hezbollah does not surrender its weapons"—alongside hints of reconsidering the maritime demarcation agreement. On the other side, there is the Party’s [Hezbollah] refusal to bow to Israeli demands, asserting that it is "not concerned with any proposals, old or new, as long as Israel does not abide by the ceasefire agreement, and there is no room for discussion on any topic before this agreement is implemented." It is noted that what is being offered to Lebanon is "either continued killing or total surrender to the enemy."

Prominent in the last few hours was the renewed Egyptian diplomatic movement via the visit of Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty to Beirut and his meetings with senior officials. Reliable sources confirmed to Al-Joumhouria that his visit—which coincides with intensive internal and external contacts to cool the atmosphere—pours into the same objective: containing tensions, breaking the wall of escalation, and preventing steps that would exacerbate the situation. Consequently, he carried no initiative or proposal for a solution in the South; rather, he conveyed Egypt's solidarity with Lebanon, its support for the country's security and stability, and emphasized that Lebanon should do everything to cement its security and avoid escalation.

The Egyptian Minister

In statements following his meetings, Abdelatty declared that he fears any potential for escalation in Lebanon, confirming, "We will not cease any effort to spare it from dangers."

He noted, "We are undertaking an intensive effort to spare Lebanon any aggression. We are concerned with Lebanon's stability and the necessity of stopping Israel's violations of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Egypt is utilizing its network of relations to support calm, implement the cessation of hostilities agreement, push for a diplomatic solution, and work to defuse any potential conflict."

Pointing out that Egypt supports the initiative launched by President Aoun regarding the Lebanese Army’s readiness to take over all points in the South, as well as "the Lebanese government’s decisions regarding the restriction of weapons," he indicated that extending state authority is crucial. He stressed that it is necessary to build upon President Aoun’s vision to spare Lebanon from escalation: "We are employing our regional network of relations with all parties."

Abdelatty considered that the Lebanese State and Army have exerted great effort in the South to extend state authority, and everyone must appreciate this. He warned that the entire region is on the brink of total escalation, which serves no party, and that diplomacy is the solution. He added, "We are entirely committed to Lebanon's security and stability. We respect the Lebanese decision with all its components, and everyone must rise to the level of responsibility and work to de-escalate."

A Bank of Probabilities

This deadlocked scene deposits additional credit into the "bank of probabilities" threatening the country, scattering more anxious questions into the atmosphere among popular, political, and official circles. These questions have accelerated significantly following the Israeli aggression on the Southern Suburbs and the assassination of Hezbollah security official Haitham Ali Tabtabai three days ago:

Is there any chance for an endeavor or initiative to succeed after Israel torpedoed the initiative of the President of the Republic, General Joseph Aoun?

How can any initiative, regardless of its source, lead to a diplomatic solution as long as Hezbollah categorically refuses to give up its weapons?

What is the consequence of the failure of these efforts, and in which direction will matters head?

What is Israel aiming for by raising the pace of escalation at this specific time? Is this escalation preparing the atmosphere for a military operation in Lebanon? Is there external cover for such an operation—more precisely, is there an American green light?

Hezbollah, it seems, deliberately keeps its potential steps ambiguous. However, can it respond to Israel? Does it still possess the power and capabilities to enable such a response?

What if Hezbollah chooses not to respond? How will it justify this, especially to its support base?

What if the Party decides to respond? Can it guarantee this response will impact Israel? Does it have the capacity to bear the consequences, whether on the organization (militarily and politically), its popular base, or Lebanon in general?

The most important question: If the assassinations of Hezbollah cadres and members since the announcement of the November agreement were carried out, as is said, via so-called "drone snipers"—whether randomly or using phone tech and AI—how did Israel succeed in assassinating the security leader Tabtabai? His movements are supposed to be surrounded by extreme, if not total, secrecy. Was it done in the same way party leaders were assassinated before and during the 66-day war? Does AI play a role, or is there a breach and flaw in the Party's security structure, with a human spotter moving within or around it?

Broad Escalation Unlikely

The answers to these questions may reveal themselves in the coming days, dispelling the current ambiguity and determining the path matters will take in the next phase.

However, despite the accumulated anxiety factors in the Lebanese atmosphere, reinforced by Israeli attacks and threats, a high-ranking official confirmed to Al-Joumhouria that "what prevails so far are external signals, still arriving from multiple sources, downplaying the likelihood of broad escalation and confirming that reaching a political solution remains a possibility."

The senior official noted that these signals arrive in general terms, without clarifying how this solution will be reached, on what basis, or the timeframe. He continued: "The atmosphere conveyed by envoys, American and otherwise, can be summarized as a keenness on Lebanon's security and stability, pushing matters toward a political settlement, and ruling out broad escalation due to the lack of a green light—specifically American—for any Israeli military action against Lebanon." He added: "The Americans confirm in our talks that their priority is Lebanon's stability and reaching a political solution to end the aggression." One US official reportedly confirmed that the US has no interest in escalating the situation in Lebanon, warning that the US has much to lose there if the situation slides into escalation and a new war.

Responding to a question, he clarified: "Everything is expected from Israel, and the situation is undoubtedly very difficult. However, I am not saying we are at the gates of war and broad escalation, because since the ceasefire agreement, Israel has continued its war on Lebanon, doing as it pleases—violating airspace, attacking, and assassinating freely without cost, reassured by the lack of a deterrent. The 'Mechanism' committee is not performing its role as defined, and Israel cares nothing for the ceasefire agreement, Resolution 1701, or UNIFIL forces." (In this context, UNIFIL reiterated yesterday that "Israel is violating the Blue Line and Resolution 1701 and preventing the Lebanese Army from deploying in the South.")

A Phase of Pressure

Despite signals downplaying escalation, French sources spoke of "serious fears regarding the situation in southern Lebanon and Israel's continued targeting of Lebanese areas," considering it "crucial to practically launch the process of restricting weapons to the hands of the Lebanese state."

The French stance aligns with a more pessimistic picture drawn by Western diplomatic intelligence conveyed to a high official, warning of difficult circumstances and alerting that Lebanon may be facing a phase of harsh pressures, necessitating the acceleration of executive steps for the Lebanese government's decision to disarm Hezbollah.

Maritime Demarcation

On another front, the Presidential Palace in Baabda witnessed yesterday the signing of the maritime border demarcation agreement between Lebanon and Cyprus, in the presence of the President of the Republic, Joseph Aoun, and Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, who arrived in Lebanon for this purpose.

President Aoun announced, "Today's ceremony comes as a culmination of the achievement of demarcating the Exclusive Economic Zone boundaries between the two countries, opening the way for Lebanon and Cyprus to begin exploring their marine resources and enhancing joint cooperation in this field." He affirmed that "adherence to the principles of international law strengthens friendships between nations, and the geography of the Mediterranean, like history and the future, unites Lebanon and Cyprus."

For his part, the Cypriot President stressed the importance of this development, describing it as a strategic achievement reflecting the level of relations between the two countries. He added, "This agreement is historic and constitutes a clear political message that Cyprus and Lebanon continue to invest in strengthening trust and mutual respect," noting that it opens broad horizons for future cooperation. He added that his country looks forward to "the new opportunities this agreement will provide for both countries, especially in the field of exploring marine resources and developing economic partnerships in the Eastern Mediterranean."

The President and the Ambassador

President Aoun received the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa. The President wished Ambassador Issa success in his mission, attaching importance to his role in strengthening relations between the two countries given his knowledge of the situation in Lebanon and his ability to contribute to finding ways to help Lebanon in current circumstances.

President Aoun conveyed his thanks to the US Ambassador for the congratulations sent by US President Donald Trump on the occasion of Independence Day, and for what was stated in his recent press conference regarding his desire to extend an invitation to the Lebanese President to visit the United States. President Aoun expressed his gratitude for the invitation and his readiness to accept it.

This news article was first published on November 27, 2025, in Al Joumhouria and translated by The Levant Files for its readers.

Photo: Gemini AI