The long-stalled Cyprus issue is once again at the center of international speculation following a significant political shift in Cyprus and persistent rumors of a new peace initiative from U.S. President Donald Trump. The recent election of Tufan Erhürman as the new leader of Northern Cyprus, succeeding Ersin Tatar, has injected fresh momentum into the decades-old conflict, even as it appears to have caused friction within Turkey’s ruling coalition.
The political landscape in the region is being reshaped by the election results, which are rumored to be the true source of recent tensions between the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its coalition partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), in Ankara. While MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli controversially called for Northern Cyprus to be annexed as Turkey’s 82nd province, President Erdoğan adopted a starkly different stance, congratulating Erhürman and signaling a willingness to work with the new administration. This internal divergence comes as international pressure may be mounting. According to the Turkish news site HaberSol, the U.S. administration is allegedly preparing a comprehensive "Trump Plan" for the island.
The core of the rumored plan, which was first reported in the conservative U.S. magazine Washington Examiner, is a grand bargain with Ankara. The proposal is said to offer Turkey a "package that the UN has not been able to offer for years" in exchange for the withdrawal of Turkish troops from the island. This package reportedly includes substantial incentives such as increased defense cooperation, European-backed energy agreements, and trade facilities. The Examiner article commented that if Trump were to genuinely engage, he could transform the diplomatic deadlock—which has made Cyprus a "graveyard for diplomats" for decades—into a rare foreign policy success.
However, not all observers are convinced of the plan's immediate viability. Retired diplomat and political commentator Engin Solakoğlu, speaking to HaberSol, approached the rumors with caution. While he expressed skepticism about a sudden, imminent plan, he stressed that the AKP government has historically viewed the Cyprus issue as a bargaining chip. Solakoğlu suggested that the AKP would "certainly negotiate" if the right opportunity and a suitable counter-offer were presented, a pattern he believes holds true for all of Turkey’s foreign policy matters.
The election of Erhürman, a figure associated with the Republican Turkish Party (CTP) which traditionally favors a federal solution, is seen by some as an advantage for future negotiations. Solakoğlu noted that the CTP has experienced and competent teams that understand the complexities of a federal framework, which would be beneficial for Turkey should a negotiation table be set. Furthermore, Erhürman has already announced plans for direct, bilateral talks with the Greek Cypriot leader, Nikos Christodoulides, without the involvement of the United Nations, a move Solakoğlu suggests is a standard CTP policy aimed at building confidence.
Ultimately, Solakoğlu believes the AKP would be more likely to use the Cyprus issue to secure greater rapprochement with the European Union or to solidify its own political security, rather than for energy resources alone. He also dismissed the AKP’s recent push for a "two-state solution" as merely a "raising of the stakes," arguing that such a solution is not a genuine goal and would be tantamount to annexation, a move the international community would not permit. Despite the political maneuvering, Solakoğlu concluded that with NATO presence in both the north and south, any U.S. initiative would likely aim to resolve local friction to better focus the island’s strategic importance on the wider Middle East.