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Tehran Metro Flag Incident: Genuine Uprising or Calculated Theater?

When videos emerged Wednesday showing two men in military fatigues displaying the outlawed Lion and Sun flag inside a crowded Tehran metro station, reactions split sharply along a familiar fault line: Is this the beginning of genuine military-backed uprising against the regime, or carefully orchestrated political theater—possibly even a trap?

According to Iran International, the men broadcast speeches by exiled Prince Reza Pahlavi before security forces arrested them. But in a country where trust has been shattered by decades of manipulation from both government and opposition forces, nothing is taken at face value. The incident has become a Rorschach test, revealing more about what Iranians hope—or fear—than about what actually occurred.

Opposition supporters see breakthrough. Diaspora journalist Amir-Farshad Ebrahimi identified the men as Second Lieutenant Mohammad-Reza Mohammadzadeh and Colonel Aghaei from Iran's 99th Air Defence unit, claiming they had bid farewell to colleagues before their "big" action. Social media erupted with celebratory messages. "Finally, the military has entered the arena," posted user Mandana Etesami, while monarchist account Aminoacid declared the incident proof that "people's fear of the Islamic Republic has dissipated."

Prince Reza Pahlavi himself endorsed the act, posting: "Courageous citizens are dismantling the walls of oppression and raising the banner of freedom."

The Case for Skepticism

However, many ordinary Iranians aren't buying it. "Most people in the subway station thought it was either a regime trap or hidden camera setup. That's why they stayed silent," one social media user observed. Video footage showed commuters watching passively, with one apparent civilian even attempting to seize the flag—though he was pushed away.

Iran's state media dismissed the incident as a "ridiculous show" and a "joint project of pro-monarchy terrorists and the Zionist regime" designed to incite unrest. Officials denied the men had any military affiliation, framing it as a provocation targeting "uninformed members of society."

The Israeli intelligence minister's enthusiastic reposting of the video—with the caption "It starts like this"—only fueled Iranian government claims of foreign orchestration, while simultaneously raising questions among skeptics about whether the whole episode was designed to discredit legitimate opposition.

What Does It Mean?

The truth remains murky. Prince Pahlavi has claimed to be building networks within Iran's security forces and has called for defections, but the extent of actual military support is unknown. Whether Wednesday's metro incident represents the beginning of military-backed resistance, a desperate publicity stunt by isolated dissidents, or even a regime-manufactured provocation remains unclear.

What is certain is that Iranians themselves are divided—between hope, skepticism, and fear—unable to distinguish genuine resistance from political theater in a country where both the government and opposition have reasons to stage demonstrations for their own purposes. 

Photo: Iran International