Turkey’s economic landscape was once again thrown into sharp relief on Monday, November 3, 2025, as the official state statistical body and an independent research group released starkly different inflation figures for October, deepening the ongoing public debate over the true cost of living in the country.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) announced that consumer prices rose by 2.55% in October, bringing the annual inflation rate to 32.87%. This marks a slight deceleration from the 33.29% annual rate recorded in September.
However, the Inflation Research Group (ENAG), an independent body of academics and economists, painted a far bleaker picture. According to ENAG’s data, the monthly price increase was 3.74%, calculating the annual inflation rate at a staggering 60%. While this is also a slight dip from ENAG’s September figure of 63.23%, the nearly 27-point gap between the official and independent figures continues to fuel public skepticism and concern.
The discrepancy is not a new phenomenon but has become a central point of contention in discussions about Turkey's economic health. While TÜİK’s figures show a gradual, albeit high, inflationary trend throughout 2025, ENAG’s data has consistently reported significantly higher numbers, which many citizens claim better reflect their daily expenses. For instance, in January 2025, ENAG reported an annual inflation rate of 81.01%, a figure that has remained above 60% for the entire year.
Economists argue that the consequences of this high-inflation environment are most visible in the nation's housing market. Respected economist Mahfi Eğilmez notes that the crisis was exacerbated by the unorthodox economic policy initiated in late 2021, when the central bank began cutting interest rates despite soaring inflation. This move resulted in deeply negative real interest rates, pushing savers and investors towards tangible assets.
"When investors saw that their savings were losing value, they channeled their funds into real estate," Eğilmez explained in a recent analysis. "This surge in demand, in an environment of already limited housing supply, caused prices and rental costs to skyrocket to astronomical levels."
This trend is starkly illustrated by international data. An OECD graph comparing housing price indices shows Turkey as an extreme outlier among member nations. From a baseline of 100 in 2015, Turkey's index has climbed at a pace far exceeding any other developed economy, particularly after 2021.
As the government maintains its official figures, the on-the-ground reality for many Turks is one of immense financial pressure, particularly from housing costs. Eğilmez offered a stark warning against the policies that led to this situation, stating, "The economy is not a testbed for theories discussed in coffee houses." As another month reveals a chasm between official data and independent analysis, the struggle for economic stability and credible data remains at the forefront of the national conversation.
Photo: Gemini AI