This intensification of "maximum pressure" exploits the very vulnerability that sparked the current uprising. The crisis began on December 28 not with political slogans, but with the implosion of the national currency to 1.4 million rials per dollar, triggering historic strikes in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that US policy is now calibrated to accelerate this financial disintegration, effectively weaponizing the economic despair driving millions of Iranians into the streets.
Leveraging Internal Chaos
The US strategy relies on the assessment that the Islamic Republic is at its most fragile point since 1979. The regime’s response to economic protests has been a massacre: while official figures claim 3,117 dead, hospital records and independent monitors like HRANA and Amnesty International suggest the toll ranges from 6,000 to over 30,000 deaths.
By tightening sanctions now, Washington aims to deprive the heavily militarized state of resources needed to sustain its security apparatus. Authorities have already expended massive resources deploying security forces to all 31 provinces and imposing a costly nationwide internet blackout to hide the violence.
Military Enforcers
To ensure the economic siege is unbreakable, President Trump has deployed a massive naval "armada" to the Persian Gulf, anchored by the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group. While characterized as a protective measure for protesters, the military buildup serves as a kinetic enforcement mechanism for the economic strategy, deterring Iran from smuggling attempts or lashing out against Gulf oil infrastructure to alleviate financial pressure.
Iranian officials view this dual economic and military strangulation as an existential war. Defense Ministry spokesperson Reza Talaei-Nik has warned that the regime will not collapse quietly, threatening retaliation "more decisive and more painful" than previous conflicts. Meanwhile, regional proxies in Iraq and Lebanon have signaled readiness for "comprehensive war" if the US tightens the noose further.
Diplomacy as Capitulation
While President Trump has suggested Iranian leaders "want to talk," the terms offered reflect the economic reality the US is trying to create: total capitulation. Demands include complete nuclear de-enrichment and the cessation of all proxy support—concessions Iran is unlikely to make unless its economy ceases to function entirely.
As the US coordinates with allies to seal off Iran’s remaining financial arteries, the risk of a cornered regime choosing war over economic collapse rises, threatening to turn a domestic tragedy into a regional conflagration.
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