Mediterranean Powder Keg: Is Northern Cyprus Israel's Next Strategic Target as Turkey-Israel Tensions Reach Breaking Point?

Rising regional tensions and military buildups suggest the divided island could become the flashpoint for a broader Israeli-Turkish confrontation.

The eastern Mediterranean is rapidly transforming into a potential conflict zone as Israel's regional ambitions collide with Turkish interests, with Northern Cyprus emerging as a possible strategic target that could trigger a dangerous escalation between the two regional powers.

Following Israel's recent strikes against Qatar, pro-Israel commentators have increasingly turned their attention to Turkey. Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute suggested that "Turkey could be Israel's next target" and warned it should not rely on NATO membership for protection, according to Al Jazeera. Israeli academic Meir Masri posted on social media, "Today Qatar, tomorrow Turkey," prompting harsh responses from Ankara officials.

Northern Cyprus: The Achilles' Heel

While a direct Israeli attack on NATO-member Turkey remains unlikely, Northern Cyprus presents a different calculation. The territory, occupied by Turkey since 1974 and recognized only by Ankara, sits outside NATO's protective umbrella while hosting significant Turkish military assets that Israeli analysts increasingly view as threats.

Recently, The Levant Files presented the view of the security specialist Shay Gal, who warns that Northern Cyprus has become "the Mediterranean's Wild West," where Turkish armed drones, ballistic missiles, and terrorist financiers operate with near-total impunity. The transformation of Lefkoniko Airfield into a drone hub housing armed Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci UAVs means these assets "can reach Israel's Leviathan and Tamar gas rigs faster than aircraft launched from mainland Turkey."

More concerning for Israeli planners are reports of ATMACA anti-ship cruise missiles and Typhoon ballistic missiles pre-positioned near Kyrenia and Famagusta. With ranges exceeding 560 kilometers, these weapons could theoretically strike Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and Haifa Bay without warning, The Levant Files reports.

Cyprus Caught in the Crossfire

The Republic of Cyprus finds itself increasingly entangled in this brewing confrontation. While Cypriot officials refused to respond on the record to Turkish criticism of Nicosia's purchase of an Israeli air defense system, one official told The Press Service of Israel that Ankara is likely "trying to stir tension in the Eastern Mediterranean to extract concessions."

The Cypriot source revealed that Turkey is "furious over the growing ties between Jerusalem and Nicosia and encouraged by the United States." Turkish Defense Ministry officials warned the Associated Press that Cyprus's acquisition of the Israeli-made Barak MX air defense system could destabilize the divided island's "fragile balance," leading to "dangerous consequences."

The second shipment of the Barak MX system reportedly arrived in Cyprus in recent days as Nicosia retires its aging Russian BUK-M1 systems. Produced by Israeli Aerospace Industries, the Barak MX provides comprehensive protection against aircraft, drones, cruise missiles, and tactical ballistic missiles—capabilities that directly counter the Turkish military assets stationed in Northern Cyprus.

Strategic Encirclement Fears

Turkey's military presence in Northern Cyprus is substantial. The Jerusalem Post reports that Turkey has "320 tanks and 650 armored personnel carriers stationed in the northern part of the island" and has "openly admitted to establishing a drone base" there. This buildup occurs as Cyprus purchases Israeli-made Barak MX air defense systems, with the second shipment arriving recently, further antagonizing Ankara.

"Israel's deepening military and intelligence footprint in Cyprus, tightly woven with Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration under American auspices, is perceived in Ankara as a deliberate attempt to fracture and contain the Blue Homeland," retired Turkish admiral Cem Gurdeniz told Al Jazeera, referring to Turkey's maritime strategy doctrine.

The Israeli Institute for National Security Studies has already identified Turkish influence in the region as problematic, warning that Turkey's expanding presence could "increase the threat to Israeli freedom of action," according to Al Jazeera.

The "Poseidon's Wrath" Option

Perhaps most significantly, Israeli analyst Gal recommends Israel, Greece, and Cyprus "discreetly craft a joint playbook—codenamed 'Poseidon's Wrath'—to turn off Northern Cyprus's air defenses, sever Turkish reinforcement routes, and restore Cypriot sovereignty if escalation becomes unavoidable."

This revelation suggests contingency planning for military action against Northern Cyprus is already underway, though Gal stresses that Jerusalem "does not seek confrontation." However, he ominously recalls that "a once-theoretical strike on Iran's nuclear facilities ultimately materialized," warning Turkish leadership to "internalize that lesson."

Regional Hegemony at Stake

The potential for conflict extends beyond Cyprus. Al Jazeera reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly endorses "Greater Israel" ambitions, with Turkey viewing this as a direct challenge to regional stability. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Al Jazeera that Israel's vision aims to "keep the countries in the region weak, ineffective, and especially to leave Israel's neighbouring states divided."

"Turkey increasingly feels that Israeli aggression has no limits and enjoys American support," Omer Ozkizilcik of the Atlantic Council told Al Jazeera, noting that Ankara questions whether NATO would truly defend Turkey against Israeli aggression after the U.S. failed to respond to Israel's strikes on Qatar, a major non-NATO ally.

While full-scale conflict remains unlikely, Andreas Krieg of King's College London told Al Jazeera that "Israel's threat to Turkey is not conventional military aggression but rather the targeting of Turkish interests via indirect means." Northern Cyprus, sitting outside NATO's umbrella yet hosting critical Turkish assets, presents an ideal target for such indirect action. 

Photo: Al Jazeera